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The roots of your health: Elaine Ingham on the science of soil – Sustainable Food Trust

by Lynda Brown

Earlier this year, US soil microbiologist Elaine Ingham, of Soil Foodweb Inc. fame, caused several gasps at the Oxford Real Farming Conference with her controversial lecture, ‘The Roots of your Profits’. I recommend anyone interested in joined-up thinking about health to listen to this and view her slide presentation.

Put bluntly, Ingham’s message is that if you are interested in health, you have to be interested in soil. This lecture, and her work in general, brilliantly explains why.

Time to take a deep breath, prepare to have conventional thinking about soil turned on its head and find out why soil biology should matter to you.

Soil vs dirt

As most of us have realised, soil is not merely a prop for plants or ‘ terra firma ‘ for the biosphere; it is an infinitely complex underworld and inter-dependent web of micro-organisms such as bacteria, fungi, protozoa, nematodes and micro-arthropods to name a few.

It is this hidden world that allows our planet and our society to thrive. It is every bit as important to our health as breath itself.

But far from nurturing the soil that feeds us, agriculture often destroys it. Every time the soil is disturbed, or artificial fertilisers and pesticides are applied, soil life is killed and soil structure compromised.

Soil erosion, the leaching of water and nutrients, anaerobic conditions, pests and diseases all follow. The system gradually collapses and eventually the soil – now bereft of soil life – is degraded so much it becomes mere dirt.

It’s a self-perpetuating cycle of destruction, and farmers then have to devote their energy to dealing with the destructive knock-on effects.

Myth bashing

For Ingham, agriculture should be the art of nurturing soil life. It’s essential to understand what makes the life in soil tick – and conversely what destroys it – as well as how to manage soil life so it works to overcome the challenges that producing food presents. Get your soil biology right – ensuring the ‘good guys’ (aerobic micro-organisms) flourish and are in balance – and the rest falls into place.

Forget the latest farm app: the most essential piece of equipment a farmer or grower can have is a microscope. And the one skill she or he needs above all else is how to make aerobic compost and compost teas. It is these that contain the necessary microorganisms for soil health. Applied correctly, this is the only magic bullet you’ll ever need. It’s as simple as that.

But Ingham also goes further. She has no time for wasting money on soil tests, pointing out that during her lifetime the number of plant nutrients considered to be essential has increased from 3 to more than 40. Who can say what a plant needs, except the plant itself?

Applying this mineral or that fertiliser, Ingham says, is also a waste of money. Assays of plant tissues reveal that the nutrients present bear no relationship whatsoever to any soluble artificial nutrients applied. A plant requires all nutrients to a greater or lesser extent, and only it knows what it needs and when – the trick is having all those nutrients in a bio-available form in the soil at all times.

She also blows away the myth of pH, the measure of soil acidity or alkalinity. Since when, she asks, has nature said a pH 6.5 is ideal for crops, when they grow successfully in ranges from 5.5-11? Soil pH varies so widely even along a root hair that an average value is meaningless. It isn’t the soil pH that needs analysing, it’s the soil’s microbial life.

Even more controversially, Ingham points out that all soils on the planet have enough (inorganic) nutrients locked up in their mineral particles (that is, particles derived from rocks) to feed plants for the next 10,000 billion years. What?!

The only reason the Green Revolution worked is that it fed dirt, not soil. Sustainable intensification? Forget it. It won’t work because it can’t: it still relies on the chemical inputs that destroy soil life. Get your soil biology right, and you don’t need to spread manure, rotate crops or till soil. (At this point, even the organic farmers at the Oxford conference winced.)

Theory into practice

Ingham has spent the past 40 years putting her knowledge into practice and training farmers, growers and gardeners to become soil doctors. She has achieved impressive results. Pasture grasses, for example, have increased rooting depth and protein content has gone up from 5%-25%.

But to understand why her followers achieve the results they do requires a basic primer in the evolutionary relationship between plants and soil life.

Nature’s elegant solution

Plants use sunlight to make sugars; they then send most of these to their roots as exudates (substances that ooze out from plant tissue) – or, as Ingham puts it, they deliver ‘cakes and cookies’ to the soil for aerobic bacteria and fungi to feed on, encouraging them to amass around the roots and prosper.

These ‘good guys’ have three important functions: they form a protective army to fight off the ‘bad guys’ (anaerobic micro-organisms responsible for disease); they contain the necessary enzymes and acids to break down and transform inorganic nutrients in soil particles into organic nutrients suitable for plants; and they play a critical role in the formation of soils’ structure, which is necessary for water retention, preventing the leaching of nutrients.

Why, then, do you need an armoury of chemicals when nature has already provided a ready-made solution?

Why life needs death and death creates life

At this stage, the nutrients that plants need are still locked up in the microorganisms, and are only released when the latter die. To enable this, nature has evolved predators – creatures that eat other creatures for their food – to create food chains and thus ensure constant nutrient recycling.

In this case, the predators are protozoa, which eat bacteria, nematodes and micro-arthropods, which eat fungi. These predators then excrete the excess nutrients – now bio-available – into the surrounding soil, creating a constantly replenishing supply of food around the plant roots, where they are needed. Clever, isn’t it?

We can see why predators are necessary for plant life, and why we are better working with the fundamental rules of nature than against them. As Ingham has pointed out, Mother Nature doesn’t need human beings, but we need Mother Nature. It’s a one-way street. This is why we have to go back to soil biology to reform agriculture from the ground up. As she says, it’s the only way forward if human beings are to remain on this planet.

Compost: the key to sustaining life

The evolution of plant life is intimately bound up with the soil biology prevalent during its development. The types and ratios, for example, of bacteria, fungi and other microorganisms determine what crops will flourish, and enable evolutionary succession to take place.

It follows that what grows where is a good indicator of your soil biology; and it provides clues to where the imbalances might be in the soil, which are preventing you from growing the best crops you can. Again, the simple, quick and easy way to fix this is to ‘inoculate’ the soil with the correct compost.

This is why compost is the nearest farming gets to a cure-all: it holds the key to sustaining life. It’s cheap and easy, and as soils become self-sustaining, the problems go away and crops are more productive – they become stronger, healthier and more nutritionally dense. No wonder, then, that Ingham is not popular in conventional agriculture or the chemical industry.

It’s more than a gut feeling

As Ingham’s lecture illustrates, the vital connection between healthy soils, plants, animals, people and planet is not mere rhetoric but an evolutionary truth. Patrick Holden, Chief Executive of the SFT, has also noted that the parallels between soil and human health are too obvious to ignore. Just as the ‘good guys’ in the soil promote and protect soil health, so the beneficial microbial flora in our gut (our microbiome) are essential for promoting and protecting our digestive health, and boosting our immune system.

But guess what? Antibiotics, antibacterials and antifungals impact negatively on our microbiome. One can only wonder, then, what a lifetime of food additives, junk food, pesticide residues, degraded food produced from chemical farming and even GM ingredients do to our internal ‘soil life’?

This is why the quality of the food we eat, and how we produce it, is so vital. And it is why we need to take Ingham and other whistleblowers seriously when they warn us that the quality of our soil affects the quality of our food and its fundamental ability to nourish us.

Soil food web – opening the lid of the black box

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
– Arthur C. Clarke

“Magic” is how humans have customarily described the soil’s natural cycles of decay and growth. Without a scientific understanding, our ancestors relied on observation and traditional practices to grow crops.

Modern chemical agriculture has been only marginally better at understanding the soil. Unable to control the natural cycles, it bypasses them with synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Despite the outward successes of modern agriculture, its heavy-handed approach brings with it pollution, soil degradation and other ills.

In contrast, organic methods like permaculture have attempted to work with natural cycles. Despite the many insights and successful practices that have emerged, a rigorous scientific model is still lacking. Permaculture and its brethren are accused of being belief systems rather than science. It’s hard to make progress without having a common understanding of how things work.

Recently, however, soil ecology has developed to the point where we can open the lid on the black box of underground processes. We can begin to understand how micro-organisms maintain the structure and fertility of the soil. We learn that symbiotic relationships between plants and micro-organisms are not the exception but the rule.

It is no longer just compost-lovers who are excited about soil. The respected journal Science devoted an issue to ” Soils: the Final Frontier” (June 11, 2004), saying:

“In many ways the ground beneath our feet is as alien as a distant planet. The processes occurring in the top few centimenters of Earth’s surface are the basis of all life on dry land but the opacity of soil has severely limited our understanding of how it functions…. However, perspectives are beginning to change… Interest in soil is booming, spurred in part by technical advances of the past decade.”

Waiting for Dr. Ingham

It’s a chilly winter day at the San Mateo Garden Center in Northern California. Several dozen of us are drinking tea and coffee, waiting to hear soil microbiologist Dr. Elaine Ingham talk on the soil food web. We’re drawn by the promise that by understanding soil ecology, we can grow healthier plants without relying on pesticides and synthetic fertilizers. And in the long run, we’re told, it will be cheaper and easier.

Actually most of us don’t have to be convinced — we’re a cross-section of greenies from the San Francisco Peninsula: landscape designers, horticulture teachers, nursery owners, Master Gardeners, Master Composters and permaculture activists. We know Ingham’s reputation and are here to listen to the master.

At last Dr. Ingham steps to the front and we’re off. For the next two days we are inundated with dense, high intensity information that’s very different from the usual. It’s like having your head unscrewed.

She’s the kind of professor you wish you had in college. She loves her subject and invites you to share it with her.

Much of the talk around organics is vague — but not with Dr. Ingham at the helm. Ask a question or raise an objection, and she’ll come back with a detailed response, complete with references in the scientific literature. As we say in Master Gardeners: “science-based gardening advice.”

Ingham has been researching soil microbiology for over 25 years, having received her PhD in 1981. She taught at Oregon State University (Corvallis) from 1986 to 2001. She left academia to devote herself to Soil Foodweb, Inc, the consulting and testing service she started in 1996. She has published over 50 articles in refereed journals.

Years spent peering through a microscope have given her a perspective that is … different. As one aside, she remarked that humans, if viewed from outer space, would bear a remarkable resemblance to rod-shaped bacteria. As with many good biologists, she has an affection and respect for the organisms she studies.

She also has a gift for the apt metaphor that makes a technical concept come alive:

  • Pests and disease are “garbage collectors” that take away stressed plants growing in the wrong habitats.
  • When adding water to compost, follow the “Goldilocks Principle” (not too little, not too much – just the right amount).

After several days of lectures, I had taken over 100 pages of notes and was in danger of getting lost in the details. How to summarize Ingham’s message? One attempt:

Life on earth is sustained by a complex underground ecological system – the soil food web.

Through ignorance, we’ve disrupted the food web, in particular with ill-advised farming and gardening methods.

We can return the food web to health by restoring the soil biology.

The picture of the soil food web that Ingham presents seems to be widely accepted. Rarely however are the ideas synthesized into a coherent whole. No wonder. The concepts come from many different fields — microbiology, ecology, soil science and agronomy. Specialists absorbed in their own fields often find it difficult to see the big picture.

Beyond the big picture, Ingham does differ from other scientists. She has a higher level of passion than one expects in academia. Also, some of her specific methods and recommendations are different than the usual. For example, she and her associates developed methods of assessing soil health by making direct counts of organisms under a microscope. Among the public, she is probably best known for advocating the use of aerobic compost tea.

The rest of this article gives highlights from Ingham’s presentations, then discusses the implications of the vision. To learn more, see the list of resources at the end of this article. Especially recommended is the Soil Biology Primer, which Ingham co-authored.

Soil food web

Learning about the soil food web is like entering an alternate reality. We see the results of the microbial world in decomposition, in foods (wine and cheese, for example) and in diseases. However this world operates with numbers and at a scale that is disturbingly alien. One handful of good garden soil can contain more organisms than the number of human beings who have ever lived: 1 trillion bacteria (10 to the 12th), 10,000 protozoa, 10,000 nematodes and 25 km of fungi, according to Young and Crawford in Science magaziney.

As far as alien-ness, let’s not even talk about bacterial sex!

I had known the numbers were high and thought that the picture was hopelessly complex. What I learned, though, is that the organisms in the soil belong to a manageable number of functional groups. These can be studied and we can make generalizations about them. Ingham’s colleague, Andrew Moldenke, says:

“All soils everywhere are comprised of the same basic critter groups. What’s different about a desert, the tundra, a rainforest or a cornfield are numbers (relative densities of critters).”

The concept that ties the different groups together is the soil food web.

Energy and nutrients are passed as one group of organisms feeds on another.

At the bottom level of the food web is the decaying organic matter in the soil that ultimately came from plants. Roots are a source of nourishment for some organisms.

Feeding on the organic matter are bacteria, fungi, root-feeding nematodes (microscopic round worms) and other organisms.

Feeding on them are the first-level predators such as protozoa (one-celled organisms like amoebae), some species of nematodes and arthropods (“bugs” with jointed legs like mites and insects).

Above them are higher level predators such as those pictured.

Even in this highly simplified diagram, you can see the multiple interconnections characteristic of a food web.

Bacteria and fungi – decomposers and mutualists

The stars of the underground are the bacteria and the fungi.

Bacteria are small bundles of protein with a high percentage of nitrogen. They’re “like power plants,” according to Andrew Moldenke. If the nutrients they need are “at the precise site of the bacterium, then bacterial metabolic rate is unequaled. But everything has to be present, just like the coal and oil at a power plant.”

In contrast, Moldenke describes fungi as being “like railroad systems. They are immensely long systems of threadlike hyphae that can mobilize carbon from one region, nitrogen from another region…”

Before learning about soil ecology, I had thought that bacteria and fungi were bit players. Some caused plant diseases, I knew, but the rest seemed innocuous and uninteresting. Several things Ingham said made me realize how wrong I was.

  • Bacteria and fungi evolved one billion years before plants, according to Ingham.
    — Since plants developed in a world already inhabited by bacteria and fungi, wouldn’t they evolve to take advantage of those micro-organisms?
  • About 80% of plants have fungi associated with their roots (mycorrhizal fungi). The figure is from Science).
    — Something about the plant-fungi relationship must be extremely important for it to be so widespread.
  • Plants can release through their roots as much as 20% of their photosynthetic production. (Figure from Science; Ingham quotes higher figures.)
    — Why would plants make this substantial investment, unless they were getting something vital from the bacteria and fungi attracted by these foods?

Among the services that bacteria and fungi provide for plants:

  • Building soil structure. Bacteria glue together small aggregates (clumps of soil); fungi glue them into larger aggregates.
  • Storing nutrients and releasing them in forms plants can use. A “microbial sponge” Moldenke calls the phenomenon. One way micro-organisms do this is by incorporating nitrogen and other nutrients in their own bodies – a much less leachable form than if the nutrients were in their inorganic forms
  • Protecting plants against diseases and pests. Beneficial bacteria and fungi out-compete pathogens and occupy potential sites of infection on the plant.

One of the most intriguing portion of the soil is the “rhizosphere” — the soil around the plant roots. It’s a zone of intense activity, with bacteria and fungi attracted by the sugars, carbohydrates and proteins exuded by plant roots.

As usual, Ingham has striking images to describe the process. Noting that the exudates contain the same basic ingredients as used for baking (sugar, carbohydrates (flour) and protein (eggs)), she calls them “cakes and cookies.” No wonder they’re attractive.

The bacteria and fungi attracted to the roots are “the white knights fighting off the bad guys.”

Symbiotic Fungus: Wheels within wheels… life within life. Feeder root of a plant containing the nutrient-absorbing parts (dark blue) of a symbiotic fungus. Vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizae (“VAM”) fungi like this one colonize the root systems of most plants, providing nutrients and water to the plants, as well as protection against parasitic nematodes and root rot fungi.

Fungal vs bacterial soils

Moving back from the microscopic view, the distinction between fungi and bacteria has practical consequences for farmers and gardeners. Different plant communities have different ratios of fungi to bacteria.

Bacteria dominate in early succession communities such as bare earth, weeds and vegetable. For flowers and most row crops, fungi and bacteria are in equal balance. Late succession communities such as shrubs and trees are dominated by fungi.

Knowing the bacteria/fungal ratio for the crop you’re raising, you can employ different practices to encourage one or the other. Tilling or digging, for example, favors bacteria over fungi. (Most farmland is bacteria dominated.) Ingham suggests applying compost that is right for the plants you are growing, such as fungal-dominated compost around fruit trees (very fungal around conifers) and bacterial for grass. To build soil, she says, encourage fungi.

Predators, engineers, taxicabs and shredders

The larger organisms play a variety of roles in the soil food web.

Many are predators who keep prey populations in balance.

Some of the large organisms, especially earthworms, are “engineers”, improving the architecture of the soil by creating air passages and hallways with their burrowing.

Micro-arthropods are “taxi cabs” for the less mobile smaller organisms such as bacteria, helping them spread throughout the soil and onto the leaf surfaces. In this way, they bring bacteria to where the nutrients are.

Andrew Moldenke points out that some arthropods shred dead plant parts, so that the nutrients become accessible to bacteria.

Beneficial nematode: Many species of nematodes (microcopic roundworms) in the soil are beneficial. This is an example of a nematode that feeds on bacteria. By eating the nitrogen-rich bacteria and then excreting excess nitrogen, the nematode returns nitrogen to the soil in a form which plants can use. Other species of nematode feed on fungi, on plant roots, or on other nematodes.

Restoring the soil food web

Unfortunately, scientific knowledge of the soil food web has only come in recent decades. We haven’t appreciated what the soil food web can do for us, and Ingham says that many of our common practices degrade it:

  • Compacting the soil.
  • Tilling, turning and digging.
  • Pollution.
  • Pesticides.
  • Synthetic fertilizers.

The degraded food web invites pests, disease and nutrient problems. In a vicious cycle, we attack the problems with chemical solutions which further degrade the food web.

The solution, according to Dr. Ingham, is to restore and enhance the soil biology. In her words:

“Over the last 50-60 years, the attitude has been to get rid of the bad guys through pesticides, not understanding that if you destroy the bad guys, you also get rid of the good guys. When we nuke soils and destroy life, what comes back are the bad guys.

“Put your workforce back into place. They don’t need holidays. Just make sure they’re in your soil and feed them. …. Our job is to make sure there is a diversity of micro-organisms, so plants can choose which organisms they need.”

Monitoring the soil life

The first step in restoring the soil biology is being able to diagnose it. Since we can’t look at the soil food web directly, we must rely on indirect methods. Some have suggested nematodes and springtails as indicators of soil health.

Ingham advocates a “direct count” method, in which individual organisms in a sample are counted under a microscope. Following a protocol, a trained technician counts the number of different classes of organisms (bacteria, fungi and protozoa, for example). The result is a report on the organisms estimated to be in the sample. The numbers indicate possible problems in the soil. For example, a high number of ciliates (a group of protozoa) suggests anaerobic conditions – harmful to plant life.

Other researchers have used plate counts. A soil sample is placed in a growth medium like agar, typically in a Petri dish. The number of bacterial or fungal colonies that grow from a soil sample are then counted.

Ingham maintains that this method grossly underestimates the number and variety of soil organisms. She says that the method was designed to detect and grow human disease organisms such as E. coli. In contrast, soil organisms need different conditions than the laboratory setting and growth media can provide. Only about .01 percent of soil organisms can be detected with traditional plate counts, she estimates.

Compost

Restoring soil biology requires a source of micro-organisms, and compost is ideal for that purpose. The compost should have a huge species diversity. Not just bacteria but fungi, protozoa, nematodes and microarthropods, as well as organic matter for them to feed on. The compost should be made locally, so that its soil biology is similar to the soil on which it is applied.

To people already involved with compost, Ingham’s discussion on compost-making should be familiar, if more rigorous than the usual. Most of her information comes from an Austrian family, the Luebkes, who developed the Controlled Microbial Composting (CMC) method. CMC is a thermal (hot) method, which involves frequent turning and close monitoring.

You can control the fungi-to-bacteria ratio of the compost by the raw materials you start with, and by your methods. Frequent turning, for example favors bacteria, since every time you turn a compost pile you “slice and dice” the fungal hyphae.

Fungal Strands in Compost: Not all the life in the soil food web is microscopic. Some fungi can be seen with the naked eye, as can earthworms and arthropods (such as insects, spiders and centipedes).

One thing you learn quickly about compost from Ingham: Aerobic GOOD! Anaerobic BAD!

Anaerobic bacteria – those that thrive at low levels of oxygen – are on her list of “bad guys.” Some are pathogens. The foul-smelling compounds produced under anaerobic conditions are bad for plants. Bad compost has foul odors like:

  • rotten eggs (hydrogen sulfide)
  • sour milk (butyric acid)
  • decaying flesh (putrescine acid)
  • vomit (valeric acid)
  • ammonia
  • vinegar (acetic acid)

Just reading the list of smells is motivation enough to keep a pile from going anaerobic.

In addition to thermal compost, Ingham’s presentation covers static (cold) compost and worm compost, which she recommends highly.

Compost tea

A keystone of Dr. Ingham’s approach is compost tea (CT), made by soaking compost in water. It’s a convenient way to the apply organisms that have grown in compost. The effect is similar to solid compost, but it’s easier to transport, and it’s the only way to apply compost organisms to leaves (foliar application).

One disadvantage is that compost teas lack the solid organic matter contained in regular compost. Without this food for the micro-organisms, the effects of compost tea do not last as long (5 years of biology vs 5 months, says Ingham).

Compost teas are not a recent invention. Ingham says they have been used in traditional agriculture since before the Roman Empire. With the chemical era, compost tea was dropped, probably because the results were variable.

Many different kinds of compost tea exist, including leachates, manure teas, anaerobic teas and passive aerobic teas. What Ingham studies and recommends is one particular variety: actively aerated compost tea (AACT). Conditions are kept aerobic by agitating the liquid or with a bubbler.

Actively aerated teas brewed from good compost make for results that can be duplicated, she says. Traditional teas, made without aeration, have variable results. And if compost tea goes anaerobic, you’ve lost most of the aerobic micro-organisms. On the other hand, she said she was interested in studying anaerobic teas and their possible benefits.

Machines for brewing compost tea in various sizes are available from manufacturers. “Caveat emptor,” (Buyer beware) Ingham says. She encourages people to read reviews and ask for data from the manufacturers. You can also make your own brewing apparatus. Ingham wrote an article explaining how for Kitchen Gardener magazine.

Some of the hints proferred by Ingham for good tea:

  • Good compost.
  • Good (potable) water without chlorine or chloramine.
  • Good brewing machine, easy to clean.
  • Appropriate temperatures
  • Appropriate food for desired organisms
  • Brewing times variable (about 24 hours)
  • Prompt application.

To encourage bactera, add bacterial foods like sugars. For more fungi, add fungal foods like humic acid, corn meal, oatmeal and fish hydrates.

One question that puzzled me was how micro-organisms stay on plant leaves after a foliar application of compost tea. Dr. Ingham replied that bacteria quickly make slimey glue to stick to surfaces,” so they aren’t washed away.


Brewing Compost Tea: Permaculturalist Alane Weber in the middle of a compost tea brew cycle. She’s checking the smell (“Very important!” she says) and the flow in and around the mesh bags holding the compost. The brewer is a 100-gallon model from KIS, and is located at Lyngso Garden Materials, Redwood City, California. (Photo: Rick Weber / Botanical Art )

Perspective on the soil food web

( Note: this last part of the article reflects my own point of view rather than Dr. Ingham’s.)

Is compost tea the answer?

The part of Ingham’s approach that has aroused the most enthusiasm has been compost tea. It promises all the benefits a healthy food web can bring — resistance to pests and disease, better yields, more vigorous plant growth, etc. Many compost tea users seem to be happy with the results.

On the other hand, skeptics point to the paucity of scientific validation and are dubious of claims that compost tea is a cure-all. Some are suspicious of the commercialization of the process.

Dr. Ingham wisely points out the limitations of compost tea:

Compost tea is not a “silver bullet” for the problems in your yard. Other practices, such as organic fertilizing, soil amending, mulching, aeration, etc., are also important to build and sustain a healthy garden. The soil, environmental and prior chemical condition of your yard all play a role in its overall health.

So far, most of the evidence for the effectiveness of compost tea is anecdotal, she says. She doesn’t have replicated scientific studies, adding that such studies require money and resources. However, she does point to scientific studies which confirm the underlying concepts of the food web.

Determining the effects of compost tea may be complicated by the many variables in the process:

  • Many preparations have been called compost tea, and the brewing process has many variables. Dr. Ingham has provided details on what she means by compost tea.
  • The biology (micro-organisms)in the compost tea is wildly variable. Adding sugars or fungal food will change the nature of fungi:bacteria ratio. If compost is non-local, the resulting tea may not contain organisms adapted to the environment.
  • Nature of the plant problem and the environment. For example. soils with few micro-organisms would seem to respond more dramatically to compost tea than those soils with a thriving food web.

A second difficulty is that the effects of compost tea are probably indirect rather than direct. For example, a pesticide or antibiotic tends to have a direct action on the target, perhaps by disrupting a key biological process. In contrast, a compost tea might provide resistance to disease by adding organisms that would occupy potential infection sites.

It seems rather early in the study of compost tea to make categorical pronouncements. We should remember that many organic methods that are now accepted, such as compost and non-chemical pest controls, were derided when first introduced.

With our new understandings of soil ecology, the opportunities for investigation are wide open – not only for compost tea, but for other organic and traditional practices.

Chemical and environmental models of agriculture

The soil food web gives a firmer scientific foundation for the ecological view of agriculture. The table below highlights the differences between the conventional or chemical model and the ecological model.

Conventional/chemical Ecological

A mechanical model:

  • Inputs: fertilizers, pesticides
  • Outputs: crops
  • Problems: pests, diseases
  • Side effects: pollution, wastes
  • Simple systems (e.g. monoculture)

Natural cycles:

  • Nutrient recycling
  • Natural checks and balances
  • Pests seen as symptoms of underlying problems
  • Waste from one process is food for another
  • Complex systems (biodiversity)

Many ecological ideas have been incorporated into conventional gardening and agriculture. For example Integrated Pest Management (IPM) has become part of many Ag extension programs. (see the the IPM website and the manual Pests of the Garden and Small Farm from University of Californa).

One can imagine a combination of the two models, in which environmental thinking prevailed but chemical solutions might be used on a temporary basis for intractible problems. Dr. Ingham, while fiercely opposed to the overuse of chemicals, admits that in a few cases they may be necessary as a first step in restoring some farmlands.

End of the chemical era?

A shift to a more ecological agriculture may happen sooner than we think. And the reasons may be economic and political rather than environmental.

Modern agriculture developed during the 20th century, a period of cheap energy. Oil and natural gas have been abundant, and our current food system uses both freely. Estimates are that it takes 10 or more calories of fossil fuels to grow one calorie of food. Food writer Michael Pollan says that the American diet with its emphasis on corn and corn products is really an oil diet:

“Corn is the SUV of plants. Growing it the way we do requires it to guzzle fuel in the form of fertilizer, about a quarter to a third of a gallon of petroleum for each bushel.”
(Interview from the UC Berkeley News Service)

The basis of modern agriculture is nitrogen fertilizer manufactured by the energy-intensive Haber process. Since its invention in the early 1900s, the Haber process has helped avert famines as world population rose from 2 billion to 6.6 billion. Making this fertilizer requires 1% of the world’s energy supply, estimates Science magazine. (Natural gas is the usual feedstock for fertilizers; petroleum is the feedstock for many pesticides.)

Arguments aside about its successes and shortcomings, modern agriculture needs cheap fuels. Without them, it is in trouble.

Are we facing energy shortages? An increasing number of people think so. The followers of Peak Oil believe we will soon reach the peak of oil production, after which supplies will shrink and prices will go up and up. David Holmgren and others in permaculture are talking about “energy descent” – preparing for a low-energy future. Even members of the U.S. elite are worried about disruptions to the oil supply; their number includes ex-Fed Director Alan Greenspan and ex-CIA heads James Schlesinger and James Woolsey.

Supply distruptions can happen whether or not oil production has reached its peak. When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1989, Cuba lost its source of cheap oil and other imports required for to maintain its conventional, chemical-based agriculture. It got through the crisis by turning to organic methods and restructuring its large-scale farms.

In an era in which oil, natural gas and energy in general will probably become more and more expensive, it would seem prudent to develop an agriculture that is not so dependent on them. Soils, plants, microbes and water are everywhere. The processes of ecological agriculture may be tricky (for example, the turning and monitoring of compost), but they are do-able, and they don’t require imports from far-off countries.

What to do?

Assuming the scientists are right and the soil ecology picture is correct, what next?

As a start, let’s make soil ecology a part of the culture. If people don’t know about the soil food web, they won’t value it. Are there any visionaries who can see this as a subject for science fiction or children’s books? It will take imagination, since ciliates and springtails don’t have the cuddle factor of baby mammals. The BBC had an example of what is possible, in their wild radio segment “Soil Safari” available on the Web.

Some good basic texts would be helpful. The subject cries out for photos, figures and diagrams to make the concepts vivid. The Soil Biology Primer is a good example of what can be done. Generalizations should be linked to supporting studies, so we can sort out myth from science.

A knowledge of micro-organisms and the environment will be increasingly important in public debates. Although this article has only discussed gardening and agriculture, soil ecology plays a part in global warming (a healthy soil sequesters more carbon); in trawling and disturbance of the ocean floor; in invasive organisms and restoration ecology. A few popular science books on soil ecology have been published (see List of Resources), but there is room for many more.

As I researched this article, I kept hoping to see more work by agriculture extension programs and researchers. They have the resources to do the research and education we need. Perhaps we’ll see them adopt soil ecology as a cause, as they previously took up Integrated Pest Management.

For permaculturalists and organic gardeners, the news about soil ecology should be gratifying. Many of our practices have a scientific basis and are good for the soil food web. The way is now open for more research and experimentation.

Learning more

An article, a set of CDs or even a weekend seminar can do no more than scratch the surface of soil ecology. However excellent resources are available online and in print.

A good place to start is the Soil Biology Primer, an inexpensive ($15) 48-page booklet with clear explanations and vivid photographs. Elaine Ingham is one of the co-authors. You can read the book online, but the printed version is much easier to follow (and the pictures are better!).

Dr. Ingham makes much information available free on the website of her organization, Soil Foodweb, Inc.: http://www.soilfoodweb.com/. A good entry point is “The Soil Foodweb Approach”. The website also has details on CDs, classes and other services.

Most gardening books don’t cover soil ecology well. Either they skip over it completely, or speak in vague mystical terms. Exceptions include chapters in the permaculture-oriented Edible Forest Gardens by Dave Jacke with Eric Toensmeier; and Gaia’s Garden by Toby Hemenway.

A book to look for is Teaming with Microbes: A Gardener’s Guide to the Soil Food Web by Jeff Lowenfels, due out August 15, 2006.

Two popular science books give background on soil microbiology and the environment: Under Ground: How Creatures of Mud and Dirt Shape Our World by Yvonne Baskin and Tales From the Underground: A Natural History of Subterranean Life by David W. Wolfe.

To get deeper into the science, see Soils: the Final Frontier a special issue of Science magazine (June 11, 2004). More science references are available from Elaine Ingham’s website ( SFI: Recent academic and popular information sources). Several scientific journals and textbooks are devoted to soil ecology.

Soil food web in brief

  • Soil food web is important for plant growth:
    • Builds soil structure.
    • Stores nutrients and releases them in forms plants can use.
    • Protects plants against diseases and pests.
    • Can tie up salts and harmful chemicals.
    • Provides resilience and adaptation to changing conditions.
  • Some bacteria and fungi form mutualistic associations with plant roots. Both plants and micro-organisms benefit.
    • Plant roots exude proteins, sugars and carbohydrates (“cakes and cookies”) which attract beneficial micro-organisms.
    • Nitrogen-fixing bacteria inhabit the roots of leguminous plants.
    • About 80% of world’s plants have symbiotic relationships with fungi (mycorrhizae).
  • Compost tea is a convenient way to apply compost.
    • Actively aerated compost tea (AACT) is what Ingham studies and recommends.
    • Other compost teas and liquid amendments exist (some anaerobic).
    • Process
      • Good compost.
      • Good (potable) water without chlorine or chloramine.
      • Good brewing machine, easy to clean. Ask manufacturer for data.
      • Appropriate temperatures
      • Appropriate food for desired organisms
      • Brewing times variable (about 24 hours)
      • Prompt application.

Resources – Short list for print version

Many online resources are listed in the web version of this document.

Resources – Extended List for Web Version

Dr. Elaine Ingham and Soil Foodweb, Inc. (SFI)

For gardeners & farmers

  • Jeff Lowenfels, long-time gardener and gardening columnist.
  • Edible Forest Gardens by Dave Jacke; with Eric Toensmeier. Chelsea Green. 2005. Monumental two-volume work. Chapter 5 in volume 1 covers “Structures of the Underground Economy” and describes Elaine Ingham’s soil food web concepts (pages 216-234).
  • Gaia’s Garden: A Guide to Home-Scale Permaculture by Toby Hemenway. Chelsea Green. 2001. Chapter 4 is devoted to “Bringing the Soil to Life.” Chelsea Green. 2001.
  • University of California at Santa Cruz,” Center for Agroecology & Sustainable Food Systems
  • Steve Diver of ATTRA – National Sustainable Agriculture Information Service

Soil ecology

Soil ecology (researchers)

Compost tea

Compost tea – industry & research

Bart Anderson has been a reporter, high school teacher and technical writer. He now gardens and writes on sustainability and energy issues. He is co-editor of Energy Bulletin (http://energybulletin.net). Bart has no connection with any business or group involved in compost tea. He has made worm compost and backyard compost for his own use for years, but has not tried compost tea.

Editorial Notes: The article originally appeared in the Fall 2006 Permaculture Activist. UPDATE (Oct 27, 2008): Added Creative Commons logo.

This is how blue the skies were when Beijing banned 2.5 million cars for two weeks

In Beijing, China banned 2.5 million cars from driving for 2 weeks to get this beautiful blue sky for a World War II commemorative parade. As soon as the parade was over, the ban was lifted, and the blue vanished within 24 hours.

Photo via CNN, where there’s a longer writeup by the guys in their Beijing bureau.

It worked. On the morning of the parade, the air quality index (AQI) — an international standard for measuring the severity of air pollution — dipped to a pristine 17 out of 500, signifying very healthy air.

Excited Beijingers coined the unusually blue skies “parade blue.”

But now the cars are back and the city is back to “Beijing gray.”

Friday’s AQI shot up past 160 in parts of the city, rated “unhealthy”.

[HT: Gabe Klein]

Israeli Home Device Turns Trash Into Biogas Fuel

The Western world may have grown accustomed to microwave ovens and electric burners, but the majority of developing populations still cook their food and heat their homes over an open fire. While that may seem like a more “pastoral” and healthy way to live, the World Health Organization reports that up to four million people die from the direct and indirect effects of cooking with solid fuels, like wood, charcoal and coal.

This staggering statistic hadn’t come to the attention of the Israeli inventors of the HomeBioGas system, until the information was pointed out to them by none other than United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. During a visit with Israeli President Reuben Rivlin last year, Ban expressed the global need for a sustainable and safe solution to this dire issue, naming Israel’s HomeBioGas’s bio-digester as a very viable answer.

From trash to treasured cooking oil

HomeBioGas ‘s TevaGas (TG) device is the first family-sized bio-digester made available on the market, which, according to Marketing Director Ami Amir, “is as easy to use as a dish-washer.” For those who don’t know what a bio-digester is, it takes organic material (like left-over food) and converts it into a fuel, known as biogas, through an anaerobic process carried out in a warm atmosphere. This fuel can then be used by a household for other purposes, like heating. According to Amir, this system does not even generate any foul odors.

“The basic underlying principles of bio-digester are, well biological,” Amir explains, “There are bacteria or microbes that thrive in conditions where there is no air (anaerobic) that are able to break down organic matter into their components. One of the results of this process is known as biogas, a combination of methane gas and carbon dioxide.”

SEE ALSO: Israeli Company Brings Light To Third World Countries Drastically improving the standard in bio-digesters

By feeding the remains of their dinner , or any organic trash for that matter, into the bio-digester, users are able to generate clean, renewable biogas to cook three meals a day. In addition, the remaining soluble chemicals left over from the biogas breakdown process (about 10 liters according to the company) can be used as liquid fertilizers for gardens and vegetable crops, a very useful addition for agriculturalists and sustainable farmers.

While it sounds similar to composting, something many of us do already, Amir stresses that HomeBioGas’s system is nothing of the sort. “Composting is feel-good, but it doesn’t provide a lot of real value,” mainly because many people who compost don’t actually treat the organic matter themselves. He adds: “Composting generates methane that is not treated and is therefore much more harmful to the atmosphere.”

The bio-digester itself is no novel innovation; The Israeli inventors of the HomeBioGas system, CEO Oshik Efrati and COO Yair Teller, became familiar with cheaper home bio-digesters, but sought out a way to make them more efficient, and accessible. “People have been developing and building devices similar to ours for about 20-30 years,” Amir states of the history of bio-digester technology. However, the majority of these devices in developing countries like China and India are “very primitive and basic devices that are a pain to install and difficult to operate.”

For environmentally-minded First Worlders too

The HomeBioGas team spent years improving on existing Indian and Chinese bio-digester models, but soon realized that underprivileged populations were in need of an entirely new model. “The intention was to develop the best product that will provide biogas from waste for the under-served populations of Latin America, Africa and Asia,” says Amir. Of course, before releasing their product to the world-at-large, the team wanted to test it out at home, which is why the first functional models of the system were introduced to a Bedouin community in Israel’s Negev Desert. Amir explains: “In these communities, there is little or no means of waste disposal and hardly any connection to utilities.”

Since their launch, HomeBioGas has launched other aid projects in the Palestinian territories, supported by USAID and the Peres Center for Peace, as well as in the Dominican Republic, where rural populations contribute heavily to the problem of deforestation, because of the need for cooking wood. “People from the Dominican Republic told us that each family destroys about ten trees a year and that usually the woman in the family is made to carry up to 6 tons of wood a year,” Amir says.

Since the company serves mainly under-resourced communities, many of its clients don’t have the funds to support the shipment of the product. This means the company needs to rely on hefty subsidies from governments and non-governmental organizations, which can be hard to come by.

SEE ALSO: MobileOCT: The Incredible Social Startup That Uses Mobile Phones To Detect Cancer In Third World Women

Yet due to a surge in awareness of environmental issues, like recycling, composting and homebiogas-ing, the company is even earning some support in developed countries like the United States, Australia and some European countries, who want the system for their own homes. According to Amir, “The need of middle class populations may not be as dire, but some still want a ‘smart can’ that can take their waste and turn it into something useful like cooking gas and fertilizer.”

Currently, the system is sold separately at a price of about $2,500 (NIS 10,000). And while HomeBioGas doesn’t have any direct competitors per say, the cheaper, simpler alternatives available in China and India represent a challenge only due to their drastically lower price.

The Largest Air Purifier Ever Built Sucks Up Smog And Turns It Into Gem Stones

What’s 23 feet tall, eats smog, and makes jewelry for fun?

In Rotterdam this week, the designer Daan Roosegaarde is showing off the result of three years of research and development: The largest air purifier ever built. It’s a tower that scrubs the pollution from more than 30,000 cubic meters of air per hour-and then condenses those fine particles of smog into tiny “gem stones” that can be embedded in rings, cufflinks, and more.

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Each stone is roughly equivalent to cleaning 1,000 cubic meters of air-so you’re literally wearing the pollution that once hung in the air around Roosegaarde’s so-called Smog Free Tower. In the designer’s words, buying a ring means “you donate a thousand cubic meters of clean air to the city where the Smog Free Tower is.”

The project has been in the offing for a long time. We wrote about the idea more than two years ago when the Dutch designer first publicly announced the project, which was originally planned for Beijing after the city’s mayor endorsed the idea. Roosegaarde and his team have spent the past few years developing the first prototype in Rotterdam, where it was unveiled this month. “It’s really weird that we accept [pollution] as something normal, and take it for granted,” Roosegaarde explains.

The white, oblong tower-slatted with louvres protecting its electronic innards-will still eventually make its way to Beijing, which of course is notorious for its smog. It’ll also make stops in Mumbai and Paris, and possibly other cities (you can suggest your own using the project’s hashtag on Twitter).

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To fund the travel, the studio launched a Kickstarter campaign where you can buy jewelry and cufflinks made with its tiny smog gems-which, theoretically, would eventually become diamonds if they were compressed with much more extreme pressure.

But for now, the tower sits on a patch of grass next to Roosegaarde’s studio in Rotterdam, whose mayor and local government supported the project with grant money.

The process taking place inside its walls is powered by 1,400 watts of sustainable energy, which is comparable to a water boiler, and the studio says it hopes to one day integrate solar PVs into the design to power the process-which works not so differently than some ionic air purifiers. Roosegaarde explains:

By charging the Smog Free Tower with a small positive current, an electrode will send positive ions into the air. These ions will attach themselves to fine dust particles. A negatively charged surface -the counter electrode- will then draw the positive ions in, together with the fine dust particles. The fine dust that would normally harm us, is collected together with the ions and stored inside of the tower. This technology manages to capture ultra-fine smog particles which regular filter systems fail to do.

Now that the working prototype is up and running, the next step is figuring out how to bring it to other cities-including the city that started it all, Beijing. The team’s Kickstarter, where the studio is raising funds for another eight days, is closing in on doubling its goal-you can get your own smog gems by donating here.

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That cash will go directly to transporting the tower, publicizing the design in cities around the world. Eventually, that attention could lead to copycats and spin-off designs-one day, these ungainly white tower might be fixtures in our parks and playgrounds.

That we need super-sized air purifiers to live in super-polluted cities is certainly a pretty grim prospect. But at least someone is thinking hard about not only how to clean the air, but how to get people excited about funding that process.

Contact the author at [email protected].

How India Wants To Use Coal To Expand Solar Power

Climate

by

CREDIT: AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade

How could the world’s third-largest coal consumer use coal to get more solar power?

India’s government is ordering its state-owned utility, NTPC, to sell electricity from solar power along with electricity from coal-fired power in order to boost solar’s position in the country. The decision, dating back to the middle of July but first reported by Bloomberg, mandates that the utility sell currently-cheaper coal power bundled into one unit with solar power, which is currently more expensive.

This could have the effect of expanding the production and usage of solar power, making it less expensive for distribution companies to bring it to customers. India’s power distribution companies are also run by the government, and had been losing money when buying more expensive electricity and selling it at a lower price.

The other effect, of course, will be the continued use of quarter-century-old coal plants that will get their power output bundled with newer solar plants coming online. This helps guarantee the coal plants’ operation, as well as their carbon emissions.

“These plants are already 25 years old,” Rupesh Agarwal, a partner at BDO India LLP, told Bloomberg. “Will they function for that many more years? Do we need to extend the lives of these plants to bundle with solar energy when solar on a stand-alone basis is becoming competitive?”

NTPC will construct 15 gigawatts of solar over the next four years as a part of this deal.

Coal India, the largest coal company in the world, has seen the value of solar for years – the company has installed solar panels at mine installations across the country.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to 100 gigawatts of solar capacity in the next seven years, which will be a large increase from the current 4.5 gigawatts. This capacity will be an almost even split between distributed rooftop installations (about 40 gigawatts) and larger grid-connected solar farms.

Boosting solar capacity to 100 gigawatts would be hard, as the Indian consulting firm Bridge to India recently estimated the country was on track to install 31 gigawatts over the next four years.

CREDIT: Courtesy of Bridge To India

Should they achieve it, this will help achieve the other major energy goal put forth by the government: bringing electricity to the 400 million households that currently do not have it. This means more power, from everywhere. Renewable prices – especially solar – are dropping, which helps those trying to limit the growth of India’s carbon emissions. At the same time, India has become more and more dependent upon imported fossil fuels – including coal despite significant domestic reserves. Recent reports have predicted that India will outpace China in coal imports in the near future.

“Despite its significant coal reserves, India has experienced increasing supply shortages as a result of a lack of competition among producers, insufficient investment, and systemic problems with its mining industry,” according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. “Although production has increased by about 4% per year since 2007, producers have failed to reach the government’s production targets.”

China has committed to slowing and reversing its coal usage due to climate and air quality concerns. A recent study found that over 17 percent of all deaths in China are related to high pollution levels. Yet Indian cities have to struggle with some of the worst air pollution in the world.

It’s not just solar that has a lot of potential in India. A study released last week found that India’s wind energy capacity is much higher than originally anticipated – 302 gigawatts for turbines with hubs reaching 100 meters, compared with the 100 gigawatts previously thought.

The government is also trying to keep energy demand low – last month, Energy Minister Piyush Goyal committed India to replace all conventional streetlights with LEDs within two years. This will cut demand almost to almost a third of current levels – 3,400 megawatts to 1,400 megawatts. Fortunately for them, LED streetlight prices have dropped almost by half in the last year.

Results Driven Land-Use Planning – Spacing National

In North America, cities are increasingly burdened with a growing list of required infrastructure maintenance and replacements. With few options for generating tax revenue, these obligations are stretching municipal budgets thin, leading to uncertain and lengthy conversations with higher levels of government about funding. This process delays the critical infrastructure upgrades that we need today rather than tomorrow.

Rather than seeking ways to maximize the return on existing infrastructure, North America is obsessed with building newer and bigger infrastructure, which does not match current demand. According to Strong Towns, this new-infrastructure fetish is literally bankrupting our cities. For example, in Vancouver, Canada the B.C. Liberal provincial government has replaced the Port Mann bridge with one of the world’s largest bridges, based on impractical automobile growth predictions. The bridge has consistently fallen short of the predicted traffic projections and its debt continues to grow with little or no returns on billions of public dollars. The B.C. Liberal provincial government is in the midst of repeating the same mistake again by replacing the George Massey tunnel with an overbuilt and overcapacity billion dollar bridge that will never be able to pay for itself.

This approach to development can be seen in many cities across North America and fails to deliver the results we need today. In many cases, cities opt for expensive and grand projects that take years to reach fruition. So what’s the alternative? At Slow Streets, we believe that Amsterdam provides a great development model that delivers short-term results efficiently and effectively. This article provides a quick case study of the Amsterdam approach to development.
Lay the Bones for Complete Neighbourhoods to Achieve Results-Driven City Building

Clearly the best solution is to prevent overbuilding infrastructure from the start. This is where Amsterdam comes in. Amsterdam often plans its new neighborhoods and infrastructure requirements to match existing demand. In North America, cities often build the residential uses first and then eventually build community amenities and commercial uses. This is an absurd way to build our urban landscapes, as incomplete neighbourhoods force residents to commute elsewhere in the city. This also places an unnecessary, unpredictable strain on already overburdened public services like roads and schools. Parents often move into these new neighborhoods with the promise of playgrounds, schools, or community centres that never come.

Amsterdam has understood this, so when the demand for more housing or public services requires them to revitalize an existing neighborhood or build a new one, they will often ensure there is transit route servicing the area first. While it may seem to make little sense to provide transit to nowhere, it ensures that the bones are in place to support a healthy and complete neighborhood right from the start. Thinking about transit right away will help ensure successful transit geometries. Reliable transit services will minimize the need for automobiles and the associated congestion, pollution, and dangers to our children and family members they bring.

Next, the city will usually then proceed to invest in a public facility such as a library, community centre, museum or school. This will serve two purposes: first it will ensure that the new public service amenity will closely match pent up demand, relieving pressure from other overcapacity public services. Secondly, it will create predictable demands in the area and spur spill-over demands such as a coffee shop, a neighborhood drinking hole or other commercial uses. Based on the demand that grows around the public amenity, the government can then more accurately gauge the need for other public services in the area and incrementally build out the appropriate mix of residential and commercial uses.

Taking the demand based public service amenity city building approach ensures that we closely match the infrastructure demands with residential requirements like schools, transportation and public services. As a result, one maximizes the return on investment from public dollars. Furthermore, one avoids overbuilding too much infrastructure that is not operating at an efficient capacity and minimize the need for more taxes. While this approach will take significant leadership and cohesive civic staff culture, Amsterdam provides several other examples for short-term urban land use corrections to meet unfulfilled demands now.

Adaptive Reuse

In terms of balancing the infrastructure deficit, the best solution is often the one that is already built. In Canada, our heritage buildings are treated with little value. For example, in Edmonton several of the historic buildings and infrastructure built in the growth boom of the early 1900’s – such as the Rossdale Power Plant, the Walterdale Bridge or the McDougall United Church – are requiring repairs. Incredulously, the conversations often results in demolition.

While these 100 year old buildings may no longer be able to serve their original purpose, they were built in a time when things were built to last (as proven by their existence still today). Modern buildings today are often only built to last twenty years. Therefore, it is in our best interest to set aside a little bit of maintenance funding and to be flexible with tolerated uses within these precious historic buildings. These buildings not only create economic value for the surrounding area, but create cultural value by connecting us to our shared past. Additionally, as community landmarks, they play a critical role in wayfinding and creating a sense of place.

Amsterdam has examples of this creative reuse of infrastructure in spades: whether it is a radio tower rig converted into a restaurant, a former industrial crane converted into a hot-tub, an old water tower converted into a flexible development show room, a tram storage facility converted into a shopping and food court facility, warehouses converted into bars or event centres, oil tanks or historic storage buildings are converted into community centres….the list goes on. Amsterdam understands the savings and value generation for the public that come from maintaining and repurposing historic infrastructure.

Part of the reason for this prolific reuse of infrastructure is mixed-use zoning which establishes the tools needed right from the start, in order to ensure that a neighbourhood is complete. The Amsterdam planning department does not blindly follow rigid guidelines dictating what uses can go where. Rather they use sound, case-by-case judgment to determine whether specific land uses are appropriate in relation to their context. However, as a rule, one notices that the repurposing of structures ensures that the new buildings meet a high level of architectural standard. This is critical for ensuring that the building creates value in its context.

If the cost is prohibitive to reuse a building in a specific way, first try to change the regulations. If that fails, find a more cost effective way to use the building. Even if the municipality donates the space for free (more on this later), this can serve to generate more value from new business taxes or the public life new inhabitants create. In the end, the reuse of historic buildings serves to create an interesting, adaptable and resilient city. I mean, a hot-tub at the top of a crane, how cool is that?

Lighter, Quicker, Cost Effective

Finally, we need the flexibility to build critical infrastructure now, not two to three years from now. Often, our current regulations structure delay the building of the critical infrastructure that we need today. At Slow Streets, we believe that we should change them or treat them more as guidelines. Common sense should prevail before requiring lengthy and capital intensive studies or reviews. Often any solution is better than waiting years for the funding of the perfect solution. Not only can light, quick and temporary solutions be built to the high standards of permanent solutions, but they can also be adapted easier.

To demonstrate: What if more office space or student housing is required now and capital is scarce? In Amsterdam they would build temporary, but attractive housing using recycled shipping containers, until funding can be acquired to replace them with brick and mortar residences.

Another example is the NDSM – an artist work centre inhabiting a repurposed, abandoned ship building warehouse. To quickly build working quarters, the City opted to reuse shipping containers. The result is a vibrant, multipurpose and dynamic space for people to experiment with art and other entrepreneurial endeavors.

In another case, there was an empty industrial land that the city of Amsterdam wanted to convert into an office park called De Ceuvel. The only problem is that the land is contaminated with industrial chemicals. Most municipalities are faced with the choice of expensive excavation and soil replacement or letting the chemicals naturally breakdown (which takes several years). If you live in North America, you can probably recall at least one property – such as a decommissioned gas station – which has sat empty with a cheap chain-link fence around it, serving as an eyesore and contributing little in the way of fostering new businesses or generating tax revenues. In Canada, such properties exist ironically on some of the most productive properties on popular retail streets such as Whyte Avenue in Edmonton or Denman Street in Vancouver.

Amsterdam decided to go with the latter letting the chemicals breakdown, however they did not want the land to sit empty. As a solution, Amsterdam leased the land commercially at no cost to young entrepreneurs for a period of 10 years. There was still the sticking point of the contaminated ground, but as always, the Dutch are very practical with their solutions.

Dutch regulations require that decommissioned boats must be disposed of properly. This can come at a high cost. The City decided that several of these boats would be diverted from the waste system and be repurposed as offices. Finally, an elevated boardwalk was installed to keep people off the contaminated ground. Nearby a restaurant and bar has been built and, in the end, an interesting office park with a stunning view of Amsterdam and the IJ river is available for budding enterprises (at no cost) while adding to the tax revenues. All of this while cleaning up contaminated land and reusing materials.

Conclusion

In these days of limited municipal budgets and growing infrastructure requirements, it is a blatant abdication of our responsibilities for our cities to not invest in results now. We do not need the perfect solution, we need something that will maximize benefits for today until a suitable replacement can be made. Ensuring that we start new neighbourhoods with the necessary tools and public amenities to create a healthy and complete community, will ensure that cities can recapture the value created from public investments. Utilizing our existing stock of infrastructure more efficiently will save all of us money down the line, and at the same time, generate more economic and community value. Finally, changing our government structure and culture will payoff in spades down the road by better matching the infrastructure demands with the citizen requirements.

***

Slow Streets is a Vancouver based Urban Design and Planning
group providing original evidence for people oriented streets.

Green infrastructure could save cities fifth of world GDP by 2050

By Megan Darby Building compact, connected and efficient cities could save 3.7 gigatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions a year by 2030 – more than India’s carbon footprint.

Avoiding wasteful urban sprawl also brings big energy cost savings, worth US$16.6 trillion worldwide in the period to 2050 – a fifth of world GDP in nominal terms.

Those are the conclusions of the latest New Climate Economy report, part of a series to show the economic benefits of climate action.

It calls for a $1 billion public finance package to green the world’s 500 largest cities, in line with global efforts to decarbonise the economy.

The first thing a mayor should think of is public transport, said Nick Godfrey, urban development expert at the NCE.

“Getting transport right, particularly in fast-growing cities at an early stage, shapes the entire urban form of a city.”

Analysis: How can cities influence a global climate deal in Paris?

That could involve bus rapid transit (BRT) systems – priority bus routes that are relatively cheap to set up.

With the urban population growing by 1.4 million a week, mostly in the developing world, such schemes are in urgent demand.

A system installed in Johannesburg had net benefits of nearly US$900 million, according to analysis by WRI’s Embarq project. The bulk of that came from shortened travel times and better road safety, with CO2 cuts a bonus.

Other low carbon opportunities are in energy efficient buildings and waste disposal.

The extra upfront cost of investing in greener options is relatively small, Godfrey told RTCC, at less than 5%. And the operational savings are “huge”.

Michael Bloomberg, in his role as UN climate and cities envoy, last September launched an initiative to spur urban leaders into action.

To date, 136 cities representing 3.1% of the world population have signed up to the Compact of Mayors, committing to cut their carbon footprints.

The scheme’s partner organisations C40, ICLEI and UCLG collectively reach 2,000 cities.

Report: Cities face ‘huge’ finance gap for climate-friendly infrastructure

Amanda Eichel, who is working with Bloomberg on the programme, is hoping to get hundreds of mayors to Paris this December.

While it will be national negotiators working to strike a global carbon-cutting pact, cities are “a critical part of the climate solution,” she said.

Particularly in the next five years, before a new treaty kicks in, investment decisions by urban planners will make a big difference.

Welcoming the NCE report, Eichel added: “This is actually the first time we have been able to show there is a strong economic argument for cities to take action.”

Attracting finance is a stumbling block. A 2013 World Bank study found only 4% of the 500 biggest cities in the developing world were able to raise capital on international markets.

By tightening up on tax collection and making robust business cases, they can improve their financial credibility.

Kampala in Uganda, for example, increased its revenues 86% in a year and was awarded an A credit rating in May.

“One of the reasons cities often have problems with creditworthiness is a lack of data on investability of sustainable infrastructure,” said Eichel. “A core driver around the Compact of Mayors is starting to gather this kind of data in one place.”

Climate-smart cities could save the world $22tn, say economists

Putting cities on a course of smart growth – with expanded public transit, energy-saving buildings, and better waste management – could save as much as $22tn and avoid the equivalent in carbon pollution of India’s entire annual output of greenhouse gasses, according to leading economists.

The Global Commission on Climate and Economy, an independent initiative by former finance ministers and leading research institutions from Britain and six other countries, found climate-smart cities would spur economic growth and a better quality of life – at the same time as cutting carbon pollution.

If national governments back those efforts, the savings on transport, buildings, and waste disposal could reach up to $22tn ($14tn) by 2050, the researchers found. By 2030, those efforts would avoid the equivalent of 3.7 gigatonnes a year – more than India’s current greenhouse gas emissions, the report found.

The finding upends the notion that it is too expensive to do anything about climate change – or that such efforts would make little real difference. Not true, said the researchers.

“There is now increasing evidence that emissions can decrease while economies continue to grow,” said Seth Schultz, a researcher for the C40 climate leadership group who consulted on the report.

“Becoming more sustainable and putting the world – specifically cities – on a low carbon trajectory is actually feasible and good economics.”

The report called on the world’s leading cities to commit to low carbon development strategies by 2020.

The findings, were released as the United Nations and environmental groups try to spur greater action on climate change ahead of critical negotiations in Paris at the end of the year.

The Paris meeting is seen as a linchpin of efforts to hold warming to 2C by moving the global economy away from fossil fuels to cleaner sources of energy.

Related: Everything you need to know about the Paris climate summit and UN talks

The UN concedes the climate commitments to date fall far short of the 2C goal. But the strategies outlined in the report – some of which are being put into place already – would on their own make up about 20% of that gap, said Amanda Eichel of Bloomberg Philanthropies who also consulted on the report.

Two-thirds of the world’s population will live in urban areas by 2050, with Africa’s urban population growing at twice the rate of the rest of the world.

The right choices now, in terms of long-term planning for urban development and transport, could improve people’s lives and fight climate change, the report found.

Investing in public transport would make the biggest immediate difference, the report found. Air pollution is already choking the sprawling cities of India and China. Traffic jams and accidents are taking a toll on the local economy in cities from Cairo to Sao Paulo.

But building bus lanes, such as those rolling out in Buenos Aires, could cut commuting time by up to 50%, the report said.

Green building standards could cut electricity use, reduce heat island effects, and reduce demand for water. In waste management, biogas from waste could be harnessed as fuel to provide electricity to communities, as was already being done by Lagos in Nigeria and other cities.

Aspen is the 3rd U.S. city to reach 100 percent renewable energy

ASPEN – Boulder, it’s your move.

Aspen has become only the third U.S. city to be entirely run on renewable energy, according to the Aspen Times. The other two cities? Burlington, Vermont and Greensburg, Kansas.

The Pitkin County resort town got the designation after signing a contract with wholesale electric energy provider Municipal Energy Agency of Nebraska.

Before that, it was at 75 to 80 percent renewable energy – and had decided 10 years ago to make that 100 percent.

Aspen eliminated using a coal a while back, replacing that with wind power provided by four farms in Nebraska and South Dakota. The Aspen Times reports it also uses energy from Ruedi Reservoir, Maroon Creek and Ridgway Reservoir.

(© 2015 KUSA)

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Wind energy has saved South Africa R1.8 billion more than it cost for first half of 2015

The CSIR has just released its latest report with calculations on the increasing savings these technologies are achieving. Collectively wind energy and solar power (photovoltaic) saved ZAR 4 billion from January to June this year. Wind energy produced net savings of ZAR 1.8 billion and was also cash positive for Eskom by ZAR 300 million.

The report is a follow up of the original study which was published in January this year and covered 2014. The figure for net savings attributed to renewables then was ZAR 800 million over 12 months. The latest figures demonstrate clearly that the benefits renewables bring to South Africa are increasing all the time as more
developments connect to the grid – now bringing 10 times more financial benefit than last year.

The benefits of renewables for the electricity market are calculated in two ways: Firstly, diesel and coal fuel cost savings which total ZAR 3.6 billion created by the 2.0 terrawatt-hours (TWh) of solar and wind energy that replaced what would otherwise have been fossil fuel-generated power. Secondly the saving to the economy through avoiding ‘unserved energy’ (load shedding). This totals 203 hours in which consumers’ energy would have been curtailed had wind and solar energy not been providing power to the grid. These macroeconomic benefits are calculated at ZAR 4.6 billion.

These savings more than offset the tariff costs associated with wind and solar projects that are providing power to the grid which reached ZAR 4.3 billion. All the above result in a net benefit of ZAR 4 billion brought to the electricity market.

SAWEA CEO Johan van den Berg describes the findings as “more good news” for the industry: “The fact that we can now show the dramatic increase in the benefits that wind energy bring to the grid adds to the increasingly widespread view within government, industry and among consumers that renewables are the answer to our country’s energy problems. When we add the approximately ZAR 16 billion that these wind, solar, hydro and biomass projects will invest into enterprise development and socio-economic development for communities close to projects, we have a winning formula that is being recognised and admired globally.”

Dr Tobias Bischof-Niemz, who heads up the CSIR’s Energy Centre, explains: “The study was based on actual hourly production data for the different supply categories of the South African power system (e.g. coal, diesel, wind, PV). We’ve developed a methodology at the CSIR Energy Centre to determine whether at any given hour of the year, renewables have replaced coal or diesel generators, or whether they have even prevented so-called ‘unserved energy'”

The release of these figures represents an increasingly positive environment for renewable energy in South Africa this year. It follows a government announcement in May that an additional 6,300 MW of renewable energy would be procured, over and above the existing 5243 MW’s that have taken the REIPPPP process to its current status at the end of Round 4.

The cost of wind energy is now between 60-70 cents per kilowatt hour (KWh) with solar managing to get close to 80 cents. Wind energy is now close to 50% cheaper than the predicted costs of new build coal powered stations Medupi and Kusile.

Music as Medicine? The Sexy Idea with a Non-Sexy Timeline.

Festival-goers at this year’s SXSW saw their share of product demos, including one for The Sync Project. The venture, backed by Boston-based startup creator PureTech,overlays biometric data and predictive technology to better understand music’s impact on the body and the brain. Through wearables, the technology acts as a sort of FitBit / Spotify hybrid, tracking everything from arousal to heartbeat to focus.

By decoding how songs influence our brains and bodies, The Sync Project’s goal is to harness music to improve health. Music can be a science, as formulaic pop hits demonstrate. And with songs already pumping us up at the gym or soothing us after a bad day, it’s not a stretch to envision a world where artists like Taylor Swift or One Direction craft tunes to treat Alzheimer’s, anxiety or even autism. “We want to scientifically design therapies for different conditions,” says Alex Kopikis, one of the company’s co-founders.

But while the next Snapchat can arrive overnight, biotech companies must cycle through rounds of clinical trials and navigate rigorous regulatory landmines. So, despite its March unveiling, The Sync Project’s solutions are still likely years away. Unpredictable timeframes highlight the challenges facing biotech companies competing for buzz alongside traditional tech startups, and the creative ways they are maintaining momentum.

Listening as medicine

The Sync Project believes song data could shape users’ physiology and mood, by anticipating how listeners’ bodies and brains respond to musical elements. “Every note has information in it,” says Tristan Jehan, an advisor to The Sync Project. His audio fingerprinting service was acquired by Spotify last year and builds recommendation algorithms to decipher the similarities between genres, artists and songs.

Image Credit: The Sync Project

But for companies looking to harness that data, a lot remains unproven. “The problem with music and medicine is that everyone wishes that music is beneficial and that it is an easy fix,” says Nadine Gaab, an assistant professor of pediatrics at the Boston Children’s Hospital /Harvard Medical School. “If you really go hardcore down to the evidence, there isn’t much.”

Related: Researchers Are Using Yelp to Predict When a Restaurant Will Shut Down

While a large body of research ties music to physiological benefits like boosting cognition in dementia patients or improving verbal abilities in autistic children, some experts believe most of these studies would not withstand rigorous evaluation. Many studies linking music and health “are not completely well-designed,” says Ketki Karanam, a Harvard-educated biologist and a co-founder at The Sync Project.

Not all music therapists are trained for experimental work and studies often suffer from small sample sizes, mismanaged control groups and a reliance on subjective feedback. “It’s pretty sad how few of these studies are well executed, controlled randomized trials,” says Gaab.

“People have a tendency to oversimplify things,” adds Robert Zatorre, a neurologist at McGill University and a scientific advisor to the company. It’s natural for us to be drawn to “a sexy story,” he explains, even if the reality is less immediate.

Competing for dollars and buzz

Biotech offers its own challenges to innovators. While software solutions can launch in days or months, proper scientific testing can push biotech launches far into the distance. Alkili, another PureTech venture, was announced in 2012 but might not come to market until 2016 or later. Says Eddie Martucci, Akili’s co-founder, its progress rate still beats most scientific advances. “Usually when you hear about an innovation in the medical world, you hope that your kids can tap into that. So if the timeline is a couple years? That’s amazing.”

Unpredictable timing can dampen funding, however. Venture capital backing for biotech and pharma dropped 50 percent between 2010 and 2015, according to PitchBook, a Seattle-based data provider on private markets. This drop came, PitchBook says, because biotech projects can “take longer to successfully build, hurting returns.”

Related: Google to Break Ground on Life-Prolonging Research Facility

Investors familiar with health and biotech see long timelines as a protective barrier against competition, says Sam Sia, a faculty member in biomedical engineering at Columbia University and the founder of Harlem Biospace, a biotech incubator in New York City. Still, traditional tech investors new to the space “may be discouraged that the process takes longer than they’d hoped.”

Biotech also competes for attention with companies that don’t need scientific backing. Recently more than 70 prominent psychologists, cognitive scientists and neuroscientists wrote an open letter to companies making certain brain training software that the researchers felt exploited seniors’ anxieties about cognitive declines and made “exaggerated and misleading claims.”

“There are a lot of companies marketing products, making claims that we wouldn’t be comfortable with,” says Daphne Zohar, PureTech’s founder, CEO and managing partner. “Before putting a product on the market, Pure Tech’s strategy is to first put it through rigorous testing, the same process if this was a medical device or a drug.”

This summer PureTech raised $171 million in its initial public offering on the London stock exchange. That money, along with the $100 million the company raised in funding earlier this year, will be reinvested into its portfolio of individual companies, allowing them to launch at their own pace, says Zohar.

While many of Pure Tech’s investors focus on healthcare, and are familiar with the often long road to clinical validation, a large percentage are traditional tech investors. Which makes sense, as Pure Tech straddles both sectors. “This is a new industry, so it’s not going to be exactly like tech and it’s not going to be exactly like traditional biotech,” says Zohar. “The timelines to market will be shorter than traditional biotech, but the things we are doing take longer than just putting a product out on the market.”

Walking the line

Leading a buzzy, disruptive biotech company without running afoul of the FDA means walking a tricky tightrope. When personal genomics service 23andMe launched in 2008, it blazed trails and helped merge the tech and biotech world, says Sia.

Related: Meet Color Genomics, the Startup That Wants to Make Genetic Testing Less Expensive

But the FDA shut down much of its testing operation in 2013. And so the company was forced to split its strategy to focus mostly on ancestry reports, a consumer product that made no medical claims, while it worked with regulators. The approach, while slow-going, got results. It received approval for a Bloom syndrome test this past February.

Companies like The Sync Project will need to strike a similar balance. Until its full launch, the company is strengthening its role as a thought leader in music and tech, leveraging the expertise of its advisors from MIT and Spotify. In July, the company hosted a workshop in Montreal at McGill University, inviting researchers in music, neuroscience, psychology and medicine to discuss the state of technology in current research on music’s impact on the mind and body. A new partnership with Berklee College of Music in Boston will include collaborative research efforts, joint-course development, and an internship program for music therapy students between the school and The Sync Project.

In the meantime, the company is building a special research platform to facilitate rigorous, well-designed clinical trials, run by independent researchers, to determine whether or not music has a palliative effect on a host of conditions and diseases. Most of the data the company collects will be accessible to researchers, says Ahtisaari, although the company is still developing a system in which this information can be shared.

These trials, which use The Sync Project’s app, are slated to begin this month. In addition, the company wants to conduct large-scale, open studies, in which anyone who wants to participate can download the app, track how songs impact their biometric data and answer a few survey questions, says Marko Ahtisaari , The Sync Project’s recently appointed CEO and former head of design at Nokia. This hybrid approach — collecting large amounts data in conjunction with smaller data sets from clinical trials — will not only facilitate a more diverse and rigorous test sample, but also likely accelerate the app’s time to market, says Ahtisaari.

“Our key motivation is to enable researchers to design and carry out better studies that will identify music’s potential,” says Karanam.

While such measures aren’t perfect, they’re a start. “These things do take quite a bit of time,” says Zatorre. “You have to do things carefully.”

Related: Are You an Empathetic or Analytical Thinker? Your Music Playlist May Hold the Answer.

Ways to Help Syrian Refugees

Originally Written by Tumblr User rrrrnessa.

That Syrian child whose picture is being shared had a name, his name was Aylan Kurdi and he was 3 years old. He had a brother name Galip who was 5 years old who died as well, along with their mother. He had a family and would have had a bright future had the International community done anything to stop the attrocities, had the International community done anything to make seeking reguge easier and more humane. When you share his picture as some nameless person in order to spark outrage, in order to pat yourself on the back for doing *something* or for likes and shares you engage in the dehumanization of a 3 year old child. He had a name, Aylan.

And instead of sharing such a triggering, dehumanizing, and disgusting image to make yourself feel good you could donate money to the many organizations that are attempting to help refugees find shelter, that are attempting to feed them, you could start petitions, you could share the history of the war (words not just pictures), you could write letters to legislators that represent you to help put the pressure on them to act regarding the refugee crisis. When enough people actually DO something…things get done. But when you share a disturbing picture which further fuels our desensitization to violence you’re not doing anything other than appeasing your own ego.

So here are some ways to *actually* help:

1. Doctors Without Borders is providing medical aid in and around Syria. If you call this number you can ensure your funds go directly to Syrian refugees  1-888-392-0392.

2. World Visions works in Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan to provide clean and sanitizing water. You can donate by calling 1-800-562-4453.

3. CARE operates multiple refugee centers in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon and you can donate to them by calling  1-800-521-CARE

4. World Food Program will provide food to Syrians and other refugees…you can donate at wfp.org

5. Islamic Relief USA is also providing food, water, and shelter and you can donate to them by visitinghttp://www.irusa.org/emergencies/syrian-humanitarian-relief/

6. You can also donate to SavetheChildren.org which provides things such as diapers, clothing, and food.

7. You can donate to the U.N refugee agency here: http://donate.unhcr.org/gbr/general/

8. You can purchase items on an Amazon wishlist specifically for the refugees stranded in Calais.https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/ls?lid=1P2RJO27Q6N2T&tag=independen058-21&ty=wishlist

9. You can sign the following petition to have more asylum seekers accepted in the U.Khttps://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/105991

10. You can donate here to help the refugees stuck in the Balkans get shelterhttps://www.indiegogo.com/projects/help-us-give-them-shelter-on-their-way-to-refuge–2#/

But you can also do more, get involved in grassroots organizations locally, fundraise with your church/mosque/temple. Write and start new petitions. Protest in front of embassies or other places of governance.

Really, there are many ways to help and sharing a picture of a young child…a BABY without his name, his story, anything is not one of them.

 

Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we’re nearing collapse | Cathy Alexander and Graham Turner

The 1972 book Limits to Growth, which predicted our civilisation would probably collapse some time this century, has been criticised as doomsday fantasy since it was published. Back in 2002, self-styled environmental expert Bjorn Lomborg consigned it to the “dustbin of history”.

It doesn’t belong there. Research from the University of Melbourne has found the book’s forecasts are accurate, 40 years on. If we continue to track in line with the book’s scenario, expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon.

Limits to Growth was commissioned by a think tank called the Club of Rome. Researchers working out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, including husband-and-wife team Donella and Dennis Meadows, built a computer model to track the world’s economy and environment. Called World3, this computer model was cutting edge.

The task was very ambitious. The team tracked industrialisation, population, food, use of resources, and pollution. They modelled data up to 1970, then developed a range of scenarios out to 2100, depending on whether humanity took serious action on environmental and resource issues. If that didn’t happen, the model predicted “overshoot and collapse” – in the economy, environment and population – before 2070. This was called the “business-as-usual” scenario.

The book’s central point, much criticised since, is that “the earth is finite” and the quest for unlimited growth in population, material goods etc would eventually lead to a crash.

So were they right? We decided to check in with those scenarios after 40 years. Dr Graham Turner gathered data from the UN (its department of economic and social affairs, Unesco, the food and agriculture organisation, and the UN statistics yearbook). He also checked in with the US national oceanic and atmospheric administration, the BP statistical review, and elsewhere. That data was plotted alongside the Limits to Growth scenarios.

The results show that the world is tracking pretty closely to the Limits to Growth “business-as-usual” scenario. The data doesn’t match up with other scenarios.

These graphs show real-world data (first from the MIT work, then from our research), plotted in a solid line. The dotted line shows the Limits to Growth “business-as-usual” scenario out to 2100. Up to 2010, the data is strikingly similar to the book’s forecasts.

As the MIT researchers explained in 1972, under the scenario, growing population and demands for material wealth would lead to more industrial output and pollution. The graphs show this is indeed happening. Resources are being used up at a rapid rate, pollution is rising, industrial output and food per capita is rising. The population is rising quickly.

So far, Limits to Growth checks out with reality. So what happens next?

According to the book, to feed the continued growth in industrial output there must be ever-increasing use of resources. But resources become more expensive to obtain as they are used up. As more and more capital goes towards resource extraction, industrial output per capita starts to fall – in the book, from about 2015.

As pollution mounts and industrial input into agriculture falls, food production per capita falls. Health and education services are cut back, and that combines to bring about a rise in the death rate from about 2020. Global population begins to fall from about 2030, by about half a billion people per decade. Living conditions fall to levels similar to the early 1900s.

It’s essentially resource constraints that bring about global collapse in the book. However, Limits to Growth does factor in the fallout from increasing pollution, including climate change. The book warned carbon dioxide emissions would have a “climatological effect” via “warming the atmosphere”.

As the graphs show, the University of Melbourne research has not found proof of collapse as of 2010 (although growth has already stalled in some areas). But in Limits to Growth those effects only start to bite around 2015-2030.

The first stages of decline may already have started. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08 and ongoing economic malaise may be a harbinger of the fallout from resource constraints. The pursuit of material wealth contributed to unsustainable levels of debt, with suddenly higher prices for food and oil contributing to defaults – and the GFC.

The issue of peak oil is critical. Many independent researchers conclude that “easy” conventional oil production has already peaked. Even the conservative International Energy Agency has warned about peak oil.

Peak oil could be the catalyst for global collapse. Some see new fossil fuel sources like shale oil, tar sands and coal seam gas as saviours, but the issue is how fast these resources can be extracted, for how long, and at what cost. If they soak up too much capital to extract the fallout would be widespread.

Our research does not indicate that collapse of the world economy, environment and population is a certainty. Nor do we claim the future will unfold exactly as the MIT researchers predicted back in 1972. Wars could break out; so could genuine global environmental leadership. Either could dramatically affect the trajectory.

But our findings should sound an alarm bell. It seems unlikely that the quest for ever-increasing growth can continue unchecked to 2100 without causing serious negative effects – and those effects might come sooner than we think.

It may be too late to convince the world’s politicians and wealthy elites to chart a different course. So to the rest of us, maybe it’s time to think about how we protect ourselves as we head into an uncertain future.

As Limits to Growth concluded in 1972:

If the present growth trends in world population, industrialisation, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.

So far, there’s little to indicate they got that wrong.

The shockingly simple, surprisingly cost-effective way to end homelessness

Why aren’t more cities using it?

By Scott Carrier | Tuesday Feb. 17, 2015 06:00 AM | Photos by Jim McAuley

It’s early December, 10:30 in the morning, and Rene Zepeda is driving a Volunteers of America minivan around Salt Lake City, looking for reclusive homeless people, those camping out next to the railroad tracks or down by the river or up in the foothills. The winter has been unseasonably warm so far-it’s 60 degrees today-but the cold weather is coming and the van is stacked with sleeping bags, warm coats, thermal underwear, socks, boots, hats, hand warmers, protein bars, nutrition drinks, canned goods. By the end of the day, Rene says, it will all be gone.

These supplies make life a little easier for people who live outside, but Rene’s main goal is to develop a relationship of trust with them, and act as a bridge to get them off the street. “I want to get them into homes,” Rene says. “I tell them, ‘I’m working for you. I want to get you out of the homeless situation.'”

And he does. He and all the other people who work with the homeless here have perhaps the best track record in the country. In the past nine years, Utah has decreased the number of homeless by 72 percent-largely by finding and building apartments where they can live, permanently, with no strings attached. It’s a program, or more accurately a philosophy, called Housing First.

One of the two phones on the dash starts ringing. “Outreach, this is Rene.” He’s upbeat, the voice you want to hear if you’re in trouble. “Do you want to meet at the motel? Or the 7-Eleven?” he asks. “Okay, we’ll be there in five minutes.”

Five days ago, William Miller, 63, was diagnosed with liver cancer at St. Mary’s Hospital in Reno, Nevada. The next day a friend put him on the train to Salt Lake City, hoping the Latter Day Saints Hospital might help. For the past two nights he’s been sleeping under a freeway viaduct. He vomits when he wakes up in the morning and has gone through two sets of clothes due to diarrhea. Yesterday he went to the LDS Hospital for a checkup and slept for five and a half hours in a bathroom. Now he’s sitting on the back of the van in a motel parking lot. A friend staying at the motel let him take a shower in his room, but then William started feeling weak, so he called Rene.

“I’m one that rarely gets sick,” he says. “It takes a lot to get me down, but I’m all out of everything.”

He has bushy sideburns and a lot of hair sticking out from a beanie and looks as if he was once much bigger than he is now, like he’s shrinking inside oversized clothes.

“I had two cups of Jell-O yesterday. My buddy got me a cup of coffee and a couple of doughnuts, but I’m gagging and throwing up everything. I’m nodding out talking to people, and that’s not good.”

Rene helps William get in the passenger seat and drives him to the Fourth Street Clinic, which provides free care for the homeless and is where Rene used to work as an AmeriCorps volunteer. He knows the system and trusts the doctors and nurses. William gets out of the van and walks inside very slowly and sits down in the waiting room. Rene checks him in. “I’m a tough old bird,” William says to me. “I ain’t never had something like this. I’m just weak as all get out, and in a lot of pain.”

Then he nods off.

The next stop is at a camp next to the railroad tracks. A 57-year-old man and a 41-year-old woman are living in a three-man dome tent covered with plastic tarps. Patrick says he’s doing okay, even though he’s had two strokes this year and has two tumors on his left lung and walks with a cane.

“My legs are going out. I’m sure it’s from camping out. We were living in the hills for two years,” he says. “My girlfriend, Charmaine, is talking about killing herself she’s in so much pain.” Charmaine is a heroin addict who suffers from diabetes, grand mal seizures, cirrhosis, and heart attacks. “When we lived in the foothills we both got bit by poisonous spiders,” she says, showing me a three-inch scar above her swollen right ankle. “The doctor tried to cut out the infection, but he accidently cut my calf muscle.”

She walks slowly, with a limp. As Rene is getting Charmaine in the van, Patrick takes him aside and asks if maybe Rene could get her into one of the subsidized apartments for chronically homeless people.

“If she comes back here she’ll die,” he says. “Especially with the cold weather coming.”

Rene tells him he’ll look into it.

On the way to the Fourth Street Clinic, I ask Charmaine how many times she’s been to an emergency room or clinic this year.

“More times than I can count,” she says.

By the end of the day, Rene has met with 12 homeless people, all with drug and alcohol problems, many requiring medical help, all needing the sleeping bags, warm clothes, food, and supplies that he hands out. As the sun sets we head back to the office with an empty van.

“I do it for the money and glamour,” he says, laughing. “No, I mean you cross a line and you really can’t go back, ’cause you just know this is out here.”

We could, as a country, look at the root causes of homelessness and try to fix them. One of the main causes is that a lot of people can’t afford a place to live. They don’t have enough money to pay rent, even for the cheapest dives available. Prices are rising, inventory is extremely tight, and the upshot is, as a new report by the Urban Institute finds, that there’s only 29 affordable units available for every 100 extremely low-income households.So we could create more jobs, redistribute the wealth, improve education, socialize health carebasically redesign our political and economic systems to make sure everybody can afford a roof over their heads.

Instead of this, we do one of two things: We stick our heads in the sand or try to find bandages for the symptoms. This story is about how Utah has found a third way.

To understand how the state did that it helps to know that homeless-service advocates roughly divide their clients into two groups: those who will be homeless for only a few weeks or a couple of months, and those who are “chronically homeless,” meaning they have been without a place to live for more than a year, and have other problems-mental illness or substance abuse or other debilitating damage. The vast majority, 85 percent, of the nation’s estimated 580,000 homeless are of the temporary variety, mainly men but also women and whole families who spend relatively short periods of time sleeping in shelters or cars, then get their lives together and, despite an economy increasingly stacked against them, find a place to live, somehow. However, the remaining 15 percent, the chronically homeless, fill up the shelters night after night and spend a lot of time in emergency rooms and jails. This is expensive-costing between $30,000 and $50,000 per person per year according to the Interagency Council on Homelessness. And there are a few people in every city, like Reno’s infamous “Million-Dollar Murray,” who really bust the bank. So in recent years, both local and federal efforts to solve the homelessness epidemic have concentrated on the chronic population, currently about 84,000 nationwide.

In 2005, approximately 2,000 of these chronically homeless people lived in the state of Utah, mainly in and around Salt Lake City. Many different agencies and groups-governmental and nonprofit, charitable and religious-worked to get them back on their feet and off the streets. But the numbers and costs just kept going up.

The model for dealing with the chronically homeless at that time, both here and in most places across the nation, was to get them “ready” for housing by guiding them through drug rehabilitation programs or mental-health counseling, or both. If and when they stopped drinking or doing drugs or acting crazy, they were given heavily subsidized housing on the condition that they stay clean and relatively sane. This model, sometimes called “linear residential treatment” or “continuum of care,” seemed to be a good idea, but it didn’t work very well because relatively few chronically homeless people ever completed the work required to become “ready,” and those who did often could not stay clean or stop having mental episodes, so they lost their apartments and became homeless again.

In 1992, a psychologist at New York University named Sam Tsemberis decided to test a new model. His idea was to just give the chronically homeless a place to live, on a permanent basis, without making them pass any tests or attend any programs or fill out any forms.

“Okay,” Tsemberis recalls thinking, “they’re schizophrenic, alcoholic, traumatized, brain damaged. What if we don’t make them pass any tests or fill out any forms? They aren’t any good at that stuff. Inability to pass tests and fill out forms was a large part of how they ended up homeless in the first place. Why not just give them a place to live and offer them free counseling and therapy, health care, and let them decide if they want to participate? Why not treat chronically homeless people as human beings and members of our community who have a basic right to housing and health care?”

Tsemberis and his associates, a group called Pathways to Housing, ran a large test in which they provided apartments to 242 chronically homeless individuals, no questions asked. In their apartments they could drink, take drugs, and suffer mental breakdowns, as long as they didn’t hurt anyone or bother their neighbors. If they needed and wanted to go to rehab or detox, these services were provided. If they needed and wanted medical care, it was also provided. But it was up to the client to decide what services and care to participate in.

The results were remarkable. After five years, 88 percent of the clients were still in their apartments, and the cost of caring for them in their own homes was a little less than what it would have cost to take care of them on the street. A subsequent study of 4,679 New York City homeless with severe mental illness found that each cost an average of $40,449 a year in emergency room, shelter, and other expenses to the system, and that getting those individuals in supportive housing saved an average of $16,282. Soon other cities such as Seattle and Portland, Maine, as well as states like Rhode Island and Illinois, ran their own tests with similar results. Denver found that emergency-service costs alone went down 73 percent for people put in Housing First, for a savings of $31,545 per person; detox visits went down 82 percent, for an additional savings of $8,732. By 2003, Housing First had been embraced by the Bush administration.

Still, the new paradigm was slow to catch on. Old practices are sometimes hard to give up, even when they don’t work. When Housing First was initially proposed in Salt Lake City, some homeless advocates thought the new model would be a disaster. Also, it would be hard to sell the ultra-conservative Utah Legislature on giving free homes to drug addicts and alcoholics. And the Legislature would have to back the idea because even though most of the funding for new construction would come from the federal government, the state would have to pick up the balance and find ways to plan, build, and manage the new units. And where are you going to put them? Not in my backyard.

This is when two men who’d worked with the homeless in Utah for many years-Matt Minkevitch, executive director of the largest shelter in Salt Lake City, and Kerry Bate, executive director of the Housing Authority of the County of Salt Lake-started scheming.

“We got together and decided we needed Lloyd Pendleton,” Minkevitch said.

Pendleton was then an executive manager for the LDS Church Welfare Department, and he had a reputation for solving difficult managerial problems both in the United States and overseas. He’d also been involved in helping out with homeless projects in Salt Lake City, organizing volunteers, and donating food from the Bishop’s Storehouse. Dedicated to providing emergency and disaster assistance around the world as well as supplying basic material necessities to church members in need of assistance, the Church Welfare Department is like a large corporation in itself. It has 52 farms, 13 food-processing plants, and 135 storehouses. It also makes furniture like mattresses, tables, and dressers. If you’re a member of the church and you lose your job, your house, and all your money, you can go to your bishop and he’ll give you a place to live, some food, some money, and set you up with a job…no questions asked. All you have to do in return is some community service and try to follow the teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith. A system very much like Housing First-give them what they need, then work on their problems.

Minkevitch and Bate believed if they could get Pendleton to come on as the director of Utah’s Task Force on Homelessness he could mobilize the LDS, unite the different homeless-service providers, and sell the Housing First paradigm to the Legislature. Minkevitch’s agency had a close relationship with LDS leaders; the church had been a big donor for his shelter, The Road Home. Bate had worked with Lt. Gov. Olene Walker, who had just ascended to the governorship when Mike Leavitt was appointed to lead the Environmental Protection Agency. He asked her to write a letter to LDS elders, requesting that they “loan” Pendleton to the state. She did, and the church leaders said yes. It was a perfect marriage between church and state.

“The old model was well intentioned but misinformed. You actually need housing to achieve sobriety and stability, not the other way around.”

Once Pendleton took over the task force, he traveled to other cities to study their homeless programs. But he didn’t see anything he thought would work, at least in Utah. “I wasn’t willing to go to the Legislature until we could tell them we had a new goal and a new vision,” he said.

Then, in 2005, after a conference in Las Vegas, Pendleton shared an airport shuttle ride with Tsemberis and got a firsthand account of the Housing First trial. Tsemberis bore his testimony, as the Mormons would say, about the transformative power of giving someone a home.

“Going from homelessness into a home changes a person’s psychological identity from outcast to member of the community,” Tsemberis says. The old model “was well intentioned but misinformed. It is a long stairway that required sobriety and required stability in order to get into housing. So many people could never achieve that while on the street. You actually need housing to achieve sobriety and stability, not the other way around. But that was the system that was there. Some people called it a housing readiness industry, because all these programs were in business to improve people to get them ready for housing. Improve their character, improve their behavior, improve their moral standing. There is also this attitude about poor people, like somehow they brought this upon themselves by not behaving right.” By contrast, he adds, “Housing First provides a new sense of belonging that is reinforced in every interaction with new neighbors and other community members. We operate with the belief that housing is a basic right. Everyone on the streets deserves a home. He or she should not have to earn it, or prove they are ready or worthy.”

When I asked Pendleton if that struck a chord because Housing First seemed akin to the LDS Church Welfare Department, he was careful to insist that “the Mormon church is no different than other Christian churches in this way.” Whatever, he was sold.

Lloyd Pendleton is 74 years old, fit and spry with silver hair and pale-blue eyes that have the penetrating and somewhat mesmerizing stare of a border collie. He grew up relatively poor on a dairy farm and cattle ranch in a remote desert of western Utah and maybe has some cow dog in him.

“As a kid,” he says, “I was expected to do everything on the farm, from building fences to chopping wood to milking the cows. Every year I was given a new pair of work boots and a new pair of Levi’s. That was all my family could afford.”

He earned an MBA from Brigham Young University and was hired straight out of school by the Ford Motor Company in Dearborn, Michigan. “I remember my first day on the job, sitting at a table in the corporate headquarters, looking around and realizing everyone else had gone to Harvard or Yale, and I was just a country hick from Utah. It was intimidating, for sure, but I thought, ‘No one here can outwork me.'”

At Ford, Pendleton began to hone what he calls the “champion method” for getting results. Champions, according to Pendleton, have stamina, enthusiasm, a sense of humor, and they focus on solutions rather than process. Getting stuff done is more important than having meetings. A perfect meeting for Pendleton amounts to him clasping his hands and saying, “Let’s get going and not waste any more time.”

Pendleton asked Tsemberis to come speak to the state task force, which he did, twice. Then Pendleton called a meeting of “all the dogs in the fight” and announced that they were going to run a Housing First trial in Salt Lake City. He told them to come up with the names of 25 chronically homeless people, “the worst of the worst,” and they were going to give them apartments scattered around the city, no questions asked. If it worked for them, it would work for everybody.

“I didn’t want any ‘creaming,'” Pendleton said. “We needed to be able to trust the results.”

Many of the people in the room were uncomfortable with Pendleton’s idea. They were case managers and shelter directors and city housing officials who worked with “the worst of the worst” every day and knew they had serious personal problems-terrible alcoholism, dementia, paranoid schizophrenia. Something bad was sure to happen. There could be lawsuits. And who would be responsible? No, they thought, it will not work.

Pendleton, however, did not want to hear complaints. This was a small-scale trial, and he only wanted them to answer one question: “What do you need to get this done?”

So they did it. They ended up with 17 people and gave them apartments, health care, and services. They took people without a home and made them part of a neighborhood. And it worked, surprisingly well. After nearly two years, 14 were still in their apartments (the other three died), and they are still there today. They haven’t caused problems for themselves or their neighbors, Pendleton says.

Utah found that giving people supportive housing cost the system about half as much as leaving the homeless to live on the street.

The cost of housing and caring for the 17 people, over the first two years, was more than expected because many needed serious medical care and spent some time in hospitals. They were, however, the worst of the worst. Pendleton felt confident that, averaged out over the whole homeless population and over a period of years, they were looking at a break-even proposition or better-it would cost no more to house the homeless and treat them in their homes than it would to cover the cost of shelter stays, jail time, and emergency room visits if they were left on the street. And those “cashable” savings wouldn’t even include less quantifiable benefits for the rest of the state’s residents: reduced wait times at ERs, faster police response times, cleaner streets.

This is when Pendleton announced a 10-year plan to end chronic homelessness in Utah by 2015. But finding scattered-site housing wasn’t going to cut it. To house 2,000 chronically homeless people, they would build five new apartment complexes. Around 90 percent of the construction money would come from the Federal Low Income Housing Tax Credit program, which gives tax credits to large financial corporations that provide financing for housing authorities or nonprofits to build low-income housing-an average 6 percent profit on their investment. It’s a rather complicated and circuitous route, but it’s politically easier than getting lawmakers to allocate billions for poor people. The remaining 10 percent of construction costs would come from state taxes and charitable organizations. Most of the rent and maintenance on the units would come from federal Section 8 housing subsidies-and, at the time, Utah was fortunate enough not to have a long waiting list. On-site services, such as counseling, would largely be paid for by state and county general-fund dollars.

It took the task force only four years to build five new apartment buildings with units for 1,000 individuals and families. That, and an additional 500 scattered-site units, reduced the number of chronically homeless by almost three-quarters. And nine years into the 10-year plan to end chronic homelessness, Pendleton estimates that Utah’s Housing First program cost between $10,000 and $12,000 per person, about half of the $20,000 it cost to treat and care for homeless people on the street.

As anyone who’s followed social services can tell you, however, cheery annual reports can hide a world of dysfunction. So I go to see for myself.

Sunrise Metro was the first apartment complex built following the 2005 pilot study. It has 100 one-bedroom units for single residents, many of whom are veterans. Mark Eugene Hudgins is 58 years old and has brain damage. When I first start talking to him, I wonder if he’s been drinking.

“I always get hassled because I sound a little drunk,” he says. “My brain works a little slow. They drilled a hole in it.”

He had a motorcycle accident in Santa Ana, California, the year after graduating from high school. After that he spent 22 months in the Navy, then worked as a groundskeeper for the aerial field photography office of the Department of Agriculture for 13 or 14 years. He says he was homeless for five years before he came here, but he’s not sure: “My memory is a little fuzzy.”

“This is a nice place to live,” he says. “I put up with them and they put up with me, and it’s a good deal. I like it here.”

While we talk, two other residents come up to listen. One is in a wheelchair. His name is John Dahlsrud, 63, and he says he’s had MS for 45 years. The other guy looks like a weary Santa Claus-Paul Stephenson, 62, a Navy vet who lived for three years in the bushes behind a car dealership.

“The caseworkers are good,” Paul says. “They take us bowling on Saturdays. The apartment pays for one game, we pay for the second game.”

“They let you do what you want,” John adds, “as long as you keep things down to a minimum and don’t run up and down the halls naked.”

“Utilities are included, except for cable,” Paul says. “They gave everybody a free cellphone with 250 minutes a month. We get a pool table, a pingpong table, 60-inch television, eight recliner rockers. They give us food boxes once a month. I got 22 cans of tuna fish last month. There’s nothing to complain about.”

They each receive about $800 a month in Supplemental Security Income, and pay a third of that toward their rent. (The balance is paid via federal vouchers, along with some Utah funds.)

Over at Grace Mary Manor, I am given a tour by the county housing authority’s Kerry Bate-one of the men who helped persuade the LDS church to loan Pendleton to the task force. Grace Mary Manor is home to 84 formerly homeless individuals with disabling conditions such as brain damage, cancer, and dementia. You have to have a swipe card or get buzzed in at the front door, and there’s a front desk manager during the day and an off-duty sheriff at night. Bate explains that one of the biggest problems in giving homeless people a place to live is that they often want to bring their friends in off the street-they feel guilty. So there are rules to limit such visitations.

“It gives the people who live here a way out,” Bate says. “They can blame it on us.”

Tom Pinkerton, 67, from Red River, South Dakota, has cancer of the esophagus. He needs to have surgery, but first has to gain 10 to 20 pounds to make it through the anesthesia. (He has since passed away.) Howard Kelly, 44, from Denton, Texas, has brain damage from falling out of a car when he was a kid. David Simmons, 39, from Texas, was living under a bridge before coming here. I’m no doctor, but I’d guess he has some mental-health problems. Lorraine Levi says she’s “over 50.” Her boyfriend beat her up and broke her back. She needs surgery and is on strong doses of pain meds.

“The average person at Grace Mary was homeless for eight years before coming here, so their health condition is really poor,” Bate says.

On the third floor there’s a library with big leather chairs, nice wooden tables, and a portrait of Grace Mary Gallivan hanging above the fireplace. She died in 2000. Her father was a manager of a silver mine in Park City, and her husband was publisher of the Salt Lake Tribune. Her family foundation put up $600,000 for the construction of the apartment complex, matched by the foundation of the heirs to Utah’s first multimillionaire, David Eccles, who built one of the biggest banks in the West. From a window in the library you can look outside and see a gazebo for picnics and a volleyball court with evenly raked sand.

Bate introduces me to Steven Roach and Kay Luther, young caseworkers who check in on their clients every day to see what they need. They take them to the Fourth Street Clinic and Valley Mental Health, bring food from the food banks-pretty much anything they can do to help.

“The point is to have a service person on-site,” Bate says. “So if Sally Jo is having a crisis, we got somebody here who can help. Their goal isn’t to take everybody off the street and repair them and turn them into middle-class America. Their goal is to make sure they stay housed.”

“We have a guy who goes out to sleep in the park every month, and we have to go get him, talk him into coming back,” Roach says.

“There’s no mandate for participation in substance abuse or mental-health care, but we can certainly encourage it,” Luther says. “We had one guy who got completely clean from heroin and is off working in a furniture store.”

Bate shows me an empty apartment, a fairly spartan studio with linoleum floors, new sheets on the bed, the kitchen stocked with canned food, silverware, plates, etc.

“The church donated all of this,” Bate says. “Before we opened up, volunteers from the local Mormon ward came over and assembled all the furniture. It was overwhelming. For the first several years we were open, the LDS church made weekly food deliveries-everything from meat to butter and cheese. It wasn’t just dried beans-it was good stuff.” (The Utah Food Bank now makes weekly deliveries.)

I ask him if this is why the programs work so well in Utah-because of church donations.

“If the LDS church was not into it, the money would be missed, for sure,” he says, “but it’s church leadership that’s immensely important. If the word gets out that the church is behind something, it removes a lot of barriers.”

“Why do you think they do it?” I ask.

“Oh,” he says, “I think they believe all that stuff in the New Testament about helping the poor. That’s kind of crazy for a religion, I know, but I think they take it quite seriously.”

“Do you think you can meet the goal of eliminating chronic homelessness in Utah by 2015?” I ask.

“Yes,” Bate says, “we have a little less than 272 remaining unhoused, and that’s a number you can wrap your head around. Not like California and other places.”

“So do you think your success can be duplicated in other places?”

“I think it can be duplicated,” he replies. “San Francisco has Silicon Valley. Seattle has Bill Gates. Almost all of our larger cities have local philanthropic organizations that can help a lot with funding and building community support.”

And that’s the question, isn’t it? Can Housing First scale to areas where land and services are expensive, where NIMBYs are accordingly more powerful, places where the full organizational zeal and experience of the LDS church aren’t in evidence, and where data about the benefits of offering the homeless a permanent residence might not withstand the whims of politicians? In New York City, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg rolled out a well-regarded Housing First program focusing on mentally ill individuals. But he then gutted housing subsidies for the general homeless population, including families, after saying he thought they promoted passivity instead of “client responsibility.” Today, homelessness is the highest since the Great Depression, with 60,000 New Yorkers-including 26,000 children-on the streets, in the subway tunnels, and in the city’s sprawling network of 255 shelters, conveniently located far from the playgrounds of the 1 percent. “Every month I get a paper from Welfare saying how much they just paid for me and my two kids to stay in our one room in this shelter. $3,444! Every month!” one exasperated mom told The New Yorker. “Give me $900 and I’ll find me and my kids an apartment, I promise you.” The new mayor, Bill de Blasio, has pledged to reinvest in supportive and affordable housing, but 1 in 5 residents now live below the poverty line, and demand is high.

Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg slashed housing subsidies after saying he thought they promoted passivity instead of “client responsibility.” Today, 60,000 New Yorkers are homeless.

But the real test case might be California, where 20 percent of the nation’s homeless live. Los Angeles has 34,393 homeless people, more than a quarter of whom are chronically so. San Francisco has 6,408 homeless, Santa Clara County-home to San Jose and the greater Silicon Valley-has 7,567, and housing costs are among the highest in the nation. It takes three minimum-wage jobs to pay for an average one-bedroom apartment there. Tax credits for construction and Section 8 vouchers for rent don’t come close to the actual costs.

That’s the dilemma facing Jennifer Loving, the executive director of Destination: Home, a public-private partnership spearheading Santa Clara’s Housing First program. As in Utah, the leaders of Santa Clara’s initiative were able to marshal different agencies, nonprofits, and private groups, unifying their vision and goals to house the chronically homeless. “At first, it was tough to move out of the shelter way of doing things. It was new to all sit around the same table and change the way the system responds to homelessness,” Loving says.

Like Pendleton, they addressed the chronically homeless cases first. In 2011, in conjunction with a national effort called 100,000 Homes, they began a trial to house 1,000 people who’d been homeless for an average of 18 years and estimated to cost the system upward of $60,000 a year. “Our motto was, ‘Whatever it takes,'” Loving says. “We built the plane as we were flying it.” That meant lots of innovation along the way, such as creating a $100,000 flex fund to do things like pay off small dings on people’s credit, so they could qualify for vouchers and establish rental history: “So if Bob has an eight-year-old violation on his credit history, we’d just pay that off,” Loving says.

By the end of 2014, they had housed 840 people in apartments scattered around the county. The remaining 100 or so have rental subsidies but can’t find a place to live due to exceptionally high occupancy rates. Still, the trial was considered a big success-in part because supported housing only cost an estimated $25,000 per person-and Santa Clara County has now officially adopt­ed the Housing First model. “We made a system out of nothing, and we used it like an assembly line to house people,” Loving says. “And the only thing in our way is the high cost of housing stock.”

So now they’re embarking on a five-year plan to house the county’s remaining 6,000 homeless. First, they’ve launched an extensive study on exactly how much homelessness actually costs taxpayers. Those costs are very hard to determine: There are so many agencies involved-hospitals, jails, police, detox centers, mental-health clinics, shelters, service providers-and they all keep separate records, separate sets of data used for separate purposes, all run on separate pieces of software. “Each department has an information system and a team that looks at the data,” says Ky Le, director of the Office of Supportive Housing for Santa Clara. “They have small teams who know their data best, how it’s configured and why, what’s accurate and what’s not.” Ky says that merging datasets has been “a tremendous effort,” but by integrating and analyzing it, Santa Clara hopes to better understand who’s already a “frequent flier” of clinics and jails, and, more tantalizingly, to develop an early warning system for who is likely to become one, and how they can be housed and cared for in the most cost-effective manner.

New housing needs to be found, or built, but with the market so tight, finding housing-any housing-is a huge challenge, one made worse when Gov. Jerry Brown slashed all $1.7 billion of the state’s redevelopment funds during the 2011 budget crisis. (Those funds have not rematerialized now that California has a huge budget surplus.) So they’re getting creative-“tiny homes, pod housing, stackable-we’re looking at it all,” Loving says. And they’re employing creative financing efforts, like “pay-for-success” bonds, in which investors (mostly foundations) would stake the construction funds and get a small return if the savings materialize for the county.

Advocates estimate it could take up to a billion dollars, half from grants and philanthropy, the other half in the form of county land and services. “The work we’re going to be doing in the next year,” Loving says, “is determining where and how to create new units and how much they are going to cost and where we can get the resources from-whether it’s private or public money. The money is all here. We have eBay, Adobe, Applied Materials, Google.” The hope is that the emphasis on quantified efficiency will persuade tech firms and billionaires obsessed with metrics that Housing First is a solid civic investment. “It’s fascinating because we have this problem we could totally solve if we wanted to,” Loving says. “We solve complicated problems all the time, right? Silicon Valley is an example of solving complicated problems all the time.”

If places as different-economically, demographically, politically-as Salt Lake City and Santa Clara County can make Housing First work, is there any place that can’t? To be sure, the return on investment will vary, depending on how you count the various benefits of fewer people living in the streets, clogging emergency rooms, and crowding jails. But the overall equation is clear: “Ironically, ending homelessness is actually cheaper than continuing to treat the problem. This would not only benefit the people who are homeless; it would be healing for the rest of us to live in a more compassionate and just nation,” Tsemberis says. “It’s not a matter of whether we know how to fix the problem. Homelessness is not a disease like cancer or Alzheimer’s where we don’t yet have a cure. We have the cure for homelessness-it’s housing. What we lack is political will.”

Fat cat pay at fossil fuel companies drives climate crisis – report

Executive pay at fossil fuel companies rewards corporate behavior that deepens the climate crisis, and offers no incentive to shift towards renewable energy, a Washington thinktank said on Wednesday.

Executives at the 30 biggest publicly held coal, oil and gas companies in the US were paid more than leaders of other major corporations, about 9% higher than the S&P 500 average, the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) found.

The big pay days extended across the industry to executives of coal companies whose share prices have gone into free fall last year.

The report, “Money to Burn: How CEO pay is accelerating climate change”, argued that such out-size pay packages – inflated by bonuses for expanding reserves – encouraged executives to hunt for oil, coal and gas even though those new fuel sources can not be tapped without triggering dangerous climate change.

“It seems to me executives are rewarded no matter what is happening with the planet – and even within their own companies,” said Sarah Anderson, director of the IPS global economy project and co-author of the report. “Executives are still being rewarded specifically for expanding carbon reserves at a time when scientists say we are already sitting on too much.”

Shareholder activists have long been pressing for companies to change their corporate behavior – including compensation packages.

“The bottom line is that breaking the link between executive compensation and chasing ever-more expensive barrels of oil is key to transforming the industry,” said Shanna Cleveland, who heads the carbon asset risk programme at Ceres, the green investment network.

In the case of fossil fuel companies, one of the main factors for calculating bonuses was based on executives’ success in expanding fuel reserves. Last year saw oil, coal and gas company executives cashing in.

Chief executives of fossil fuel companies took home an average $14.7m (£9.6m) last year, about 9% higher than the average $13.4m for S&P 500 chief executives.

The chief executives of ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, the two biggest publicly held companies, made more than twice the S&P average last year, the report said. Rex Tillerson, Exxon’s chief executive, took home $33m last year. Ryan Lance, the chief executive of ConocoPhillips and the second-highest paid leader of a big oil company, took home $27m.

More than half of their compensation packages came in the form of stock options and stock grants which vest over three to four years. Climate change plays out over decades, however.

Current pay packages encourage executives to lobby against attempts to end fossil fuel subsidies, or advance clean energy regulations, the thinktank said.

None of the 30 top fossil fuel companies encourage moves to cleaner energy. Campaigners said that needed to change.

“If we are serious about climate change then we need to start incentivising the kind of behavior we need to see,” said Laura Berry, director of the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility. “Until we get a real change in corporate strategy which will not happen without properly aligned incentives, we are not going to see the magnitude of change needed to turn things around.”

Thousands of Icelanders Have Volunteered to Take Syrian Refugees Into Their Homes

More than 11,000 Icelanders have offered to take Syrian refugees into their homes, after their government said it would accept only 50 people this year.

A Facebook event created Sunday by Icelandic author and professor Bryndis Bjorgvinsdottir encouraged members of the public to call on the government to increase its intake of refugees, reports Agence France-Presse.

Messages on the event page offered food, housing, clothes and schooling.

“I’m a single mother with a 6-year-old son,” wrote Hekla Stefansdottir. “We can take a child in need. I’m a teacher and would teach the child to speak, read and write Icelandic and adjust to Icelandic society. We have clothes, a bed, toys and everything a child needs. I would of course pay for the airplane ticket.”

The overwhelming response has led the country’s Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson to appoint a committee of ministers to discuss the possibility of allowing more refugees into the country, which has a population of about 330,000 residents, reports the Icelandic Review Online.

“It has been our goal in international politics to be of help in as many areas as possible and this is one of the areas where the need is most right now,” he told Icelandic news site RUV.

More than 4 million Syrians have fled the conflict in their home country and a further 7.6 million are displaced inside Syria, according to the U.N. The number of refugees pouring into Europe after fleeing war and persecution in Africa and the Middle East is the highest it’s been since the end of World War II.

Read next: These Celebrities Are Taking a Stand on the Refugee Crisis

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Earth has lost more than half its trees since humans invented axes

A remarkable study has calculated that there are about 3 trillion trees on the planet today but this represents just 45 per cent of the total number of trees that had existed before the rise of humans.

Using a combination of satellite images, data from forestry researchers on the ground and supercomputer number-crunching, scientists have for the first time been able to accurately estimate the quantity of trees growing on all continents except Antarctica.

Previous guesses at the global number of trees were in the range of 400 billion, or about 61 trees for every person on Earth. However, the latest, more accurate study, based on 400,000 estimates of tree densities around the world, puts the total at 3.04 trillion, or roughly 422 trees per person.

However, although the actual number of trees may be about eight times higher than previously thought, the scientists warned that we are cutting them down at the rate of about 15 billion a year, with the highest losses in the tropics where some of the oldest and biggest trees live.

The scientists calculate that there are 1.39 trillion trees growing in tropical and sub-tropical forests, about 0.61 trillion in temperate regions such as the US and Europe and 0.74 trillion in the boreal forests in the higher, more northerly latitudes of Canada and Siberia.

Mapping trees globally will help us to understand the critical role they play as part of Earth’s life-support system, explained Thomas Crowther of Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, the lead author of the study published in the journal Nature.

“Trees are among the most prominent and critical organisms on Earth, yet we are only recently beginning to comprehend their global extent and distribution,” Dr Crowther said.

“They store huge amounts of carbon, are essential for the cycling of nutrients, for water and air quality, and for countless human services. Yet you ask people to estimate, within an order of magnitude, how many trees there are and they don’t know where to begin,” he said.

“I don’t know what I would have guessed, but I was certainly surprised to find that we were talking about trillions,” he added.

The researchers collated data on tree densities using satellite images as well as information from field scientists around the world and were able to make assessments on how tree numbers were affected by factors such as climate, topography, soil and human impacts.

“The diverse array of data available today allowed us to build predictive models to estimate the number of trees at regional levels,” said Henry Glick of Yale, one of the study’s co-authors.

The greatest tree density was found in the cold, boreal forests of Russia, Scandinavia and North America, but this was because the trees here tend to be younger and more stunted than those that grow in the tropical rainforests.

The largest forests, however, are those that grow in tropical regions, such as the Amazon, which are home to about 43 per cent of the world’s trees – boreal regions account for 24 per cent and temperate forests are home to 22 per cent.


The collaborative effort, which was the result of work by nearly 40 researchers from 15 countries, documented the effects of deforestation and changes in land-use – such as the conversion of pristine forest to agricultural land – on tree cover over many years.

They found that as the human population increased, then the number of trees fell, which is what happened in Europe over the past few thousand years as a result of human development.

“We’ve nearly halved the number of trees on the planet, and we’ve seen the impacts on climate and human health as a result. This study highlights how much more effort is needed if we are to restore healthy forests worldwide,” Dr Crowther said.

Simon Lewis, a researcher in global change science at University College London, said the study is the first to come up with an accurate, global estimate for the number of living trees, but he emphasised that this is not the only important part of an ecosystem.

“A plantation forest of many small trees all of the same type isn’t better than a patch of pristine Amazon rainforest with fewer very large trees of all different species,” Dr Lewis said.

“Similarly, measuring carbon storage in forests required different techniques than counting trees, as most carbon in a forest is held in a small number of large trees, not the many small trees,” he said.

“However, global overviews do allow us to see important new aspects of Earth, as the study shows that humans have removed 46 per cent of Earth’s trees, an important statistic showing the heavy influence of human activity on all ecosystems,” he added.

California Is About to Do Something Great That No State Has Ever Done Before

Back in January, California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) made a promise. His state, he said, would pursue a new package of climate goals that are the most ambitious in the nation (and among the most ambitious in the world). California was already a leader in efforts to slash greenhouse gas emissions and promote clean energy. Brown pledged to go further. By 2030, he declared, California would double the energy efficiency of state buildings; get half its electricity from renewables; and halve consumption of gasoline by cars and trucks.

At the time, all those nice-sounding goals were just words in a speech. But they could very soon become the law of the land. The state legislature is currently considering several bills (SB 350 is the most important) that would codify Brown’s climate agenda. The legislation is widely expected to pass before the end of the legislative session next Friday, but not without a fight from the state’s powerful oil lobby.

Before we get into the bills themselves, let’s talk about California. Believe it or not, the state where America fell in love with cars and highways is now leading the nation, and the world, when it comes to climate action. And that matters, because California, the world’s seventh-largest economy, is a world-class emitter of greenhouse gases. It ranks second for state emissions, behind Texas, and if it were its own nation, it would rank 20th globally, right between Italy and Spain. Still, it’s remarkably clean for its size: On a per-capita basis, it ranks 45th among US states and 38th when compared with countries around the world. (Below, the bars represent total emissions and the dots represent per-capita emissions.)

California is also special because of how much of its emissions come from road transportation (cars, trucks, buses, etc.), which is why a major reduction in gasoline use would be so significant. Nationally, just 27 percent of greenhouse gas emissions are from transportation; in California, it’s 37 percent. Another way to crunch those numbers: One-tenth of the nation’s road transport emissions come from California. Unsurprisingly, California is also the biggest consumer of gasoline, accounting for one-tenth of the national gas market. As a result, it also has an infamously aggressive oil lobby-more on that in a minute.

“If California can do this, it could really be the beginning of the snowball,” Tim O’Connor said.

California first stepped onto the national climate stage back in 2006 during the Arnold Schwarzenegger administration, with the passage of AB32, known as the Global Warming Solutions Act. That law sets a target of reducing the state’s economy-wide carbon footprint to 1990 levels by 2020. Since the bill was enacted, gasoline consumption in the state is down 9 percent-double the nationwide decline. Total carbon emissions are also down, while GDP and population are both on the rise. Roll those things together and you get the most impressive number: The carbon intensity of the state’s economy (that is, emissions per unit of GDP) is down 28 percent. The upshot is that California has become a proving ground for the notion that strong economic growth and climate action can go hand in hand:

That’s where the current bills come in. SB 350 would bring the state’s gasoline consumption down to about where Florida’s is now, while setting new targets for clean energy and energy efficiency projects. There’s also SB32, which would build on Schwarzenegger’s targets and require the state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 (to meet that target, emissions have to start falling about five times faster than they currently are). That would be the most aggressive state target in the country; nationally, the furthest President Barack Obama has gone is to aim for a 26-28 percent reduction by 2025 (and that’s not enshrined in law, either). Both bills passed the state Senate in June by a wide margin; they’re due for a vote in the Assembly within the coming week. If they pass, they’ll head to Brown’s desk for a signature.

Neither bill includes specific prescriptions for how to meet the targets. Those are left to the state’s Air Resources Board (CARB), which would be required to turn in an enforcement plan by 2017. The gas consumption target would likely require some combination of new fuel efficiency standards for cars, incentives for alternative fuels and biofuels, cooperation with local planning agencies to improve public transit and make communities less car-reliant, and a push to get people to buy more electric vehicles. (California is already home to half of the roughly 174,000 electric vehicles on the road in the United States.)

“If California can do this, it could really be the beginning of the snowball,” said Tim O’Connor, director of California policy for the Environmental Defense Fund. “This is how California can really shake up the national conversation on climate.”

The oil lobby has long been the most powerful special interest group in Sacramento.

Combined, these efforts are expected to create up to half a million jobs, according to a recent University of California-Berkeley study, and draw billions in clean tech investments (for which California is already the undisputed national champ). The bills’ supporters in the California capitol also say they will save millions of dollars in traffic-related public health costs and result in reduced energy bills.

The bills’ other supporters include Obama; both the state’s US senators and a majority of its congressional delegation; and a coalition of California businesses, large and small. But they also have some powerful enemies who are pushing back hard.

Because of the state’s share of the gasoline market, and its robust oil and gas production industry, the oil lobby has long been the most powerful special interest in Sacramento. The biggest group, the Western States Petroleum Association, spent $8.9 million on lobbying last year. Now, Californians are getting blitzed by ads like the one below, from the so-called California Drivers Alliance (backed by WSPA, and representing “fuel users & providers”). The ad claims SB 350 will lead to gas rationing and is all about “limiting how far we can drive” and “penalizing drivers for using too much gas.” The bill’s sponsor, Sen. Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles), called the ad “absurd” and “fear-mongering.”

“There’s a significant amount of inertia protecting the industry,” O’Connor said. “The lobby is putting its aim right at the center, at swing moderates” in the Assembly.

We’ll have to wait and see how this pans out. But California has a strong history of leadership on climate policies-including carbon trading programs (it created the nation’s first economy-wide cap-and-trade market in 2012) and clean vehicle standards-so the odds are pretty good.

“The governor has put his reputation on the line,” O’Connor said. “It’s hard to imagine 350 won’t pass.”

How ‘gold-plating’ the Australian electricity grid is killing off coal

A startling decoupling of grid-supplied electricity and economic growth has occurred in Australia over the past few years.

Since peaking in 2009, electricity demand in the Australian National Electricity Market has fallen by 7.5 percent while Australian GDP has expanded by about 16 percent.

What this goes to show is that economic growth can-and has-proceeded without having to rely on coal-fired electricity.

Falling demand for grid-supplied electricity has been driven in part by less appetite from energy-intensive industries (in particular by shutdowns of aluminium smelters in New South Wales and Victoria) but also by energy-efficiency advances and growth in rooftop solar installations.

Australia as a whole is just short of 15 percent solar penetration already-plenty of room still to grow but the uptake has been remarkable. The state of South Australia will soon reach 25 percent penetration while the Queensland city of Brisbane has achieved 40 percent penetration. Meanwhile, average rooftop solar system sizes continue to expand, growing from about 4.5 kilowatts earlier this year to 4.84 kilowatts in recent months.

WHY THE BOOM IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND ROOFTOP SOLAR?

Much of it can be attributed directly to an exponential increase in retail electricity prices. Those prices in turn are tied to ‘gold-plating’ of the networks, that is, utilities’ pouring money into the grid as a way to ensure they continue to make money.

The divergence in retail and wholesale pricing is nothing short of extraordinary. Chart 1 here how retail electricity prices in the state of Victoria have risen 195 percent over the past 16 years -in stark contrast to the 56 percent increase to the consumer price index over the same period. Wholesale prices have actually fallen over the same period of time.

The advent of electricity storage will only accelerate these trends, especially the installation of rooftop solar over the medium term. AGL Energy, one of the major Australian utilities, recently rolled out a solar battery-package offering, although the price is too high to drive significant take-up in the short term.

(On my house, for example, I can get a 4-kilowatt solar system fully installed for $A5,757 with a payback period of approximately five years while what AGL is offering-a 7.2-kilowatt battery-would have an installed cost of $14,289 and a payback period of approximately 8.5 years.)

As new battery products hit the market-lithium and flow batteries, for instance-and as scale economies drive prices down, storage costs will decline rapidly. History is a guide on this point. Since 2009, photovoltaic panel and systems prices haves fallen by about 25 percent annually in Australia.

Battery-storage costs will most likely follow a similar trajectory. As shown in the Chart 2 and Chart 3, AEMO forecasts strong growth in rooftop solar uptake, and expects battery storage installations to take off. Our guess is that these forecasts, as with many new technologies, will prove too conservative.

What does all this mean for Australia’s electricity market?

It means, in part, that demand for grid-supplied electricity from commercial-and particularly from residential customers-will probably continue to fall, thereby putting further pressure on coal-fired electricity-generator profits.

And it means that the increasing risk of stranded assets calls for the development of a long-term national electricity-sector transition plan. Such a plan, done right, would address vital issues that include network stability, reducing grid overinvestment, decarbonization and power plant site rehabilitation.

Tim King is IEEFA’s director of energy policy, Australasia.

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